ATL: DORIAN - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Almost all of the 12z guidance shifted north and east...decent news for FL and the SE US. Let's hope we get some consistency over the next few runs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

And there we have it my friends...... within 12 hours we go through WFB landfall to probably no landfall in FL on the EURO...

I'd say that there is a consensus between all the major 12Z models - they all TRENDED East - way east

Yes, but they could winsheld wipe right back the next few runs.

[robbielyn]

Matthew 2019. What a relief for the west coast if this pans out and yay for panhandle but stay alert. it’s only one run but all the models agree except one. GFS may beat Euro after all.

[LarryWx]

Euro will miss FL and GA. Then we'll see.

[beachman80]

Local meteorologist on the news looking at live at Euro coming in says this is great news for Florida. Says he thinks others will follow suit here soon. Says people can start breathing a little easier but still be cautious.

[KWT]

Yep stays offshore and heading NNW possibly towards Georgia/Carolinas.

No it doesn’t stay off shore...there’s cape canaveral there and it looked juuust west of that soo yea no doesn’t miss Florida

the CENTER stays offshore and does not make landfall...nothing I've said there is wrong, it DOES miss Florida. Doesn't mean theres no impact, but the center and probably eyewall both stays offshore.

[alienstorm]

Keep in mind the windshield wiper syndrome. This is great news but will need to see the others join.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Peeps, remember this is one run of one model that could swing back the next run.

72 hours until it's over Grand Bahama and that is about 100 miles between a close call and landfall. Still have 12 more model runs between now and then.

Big question, when does it turn north? Obviously, the sooner the better.

[shawn6304]

looking at that run it looks like west palm would have TS strength winds for like 40+ hours as it just sits on the coastline, that would still be very destructive wouldn't it?

[StormingB81]

Yep stays offshore and heading NNW possibly towards Georgia/Carolinas.

No it doesn’t stay off shore...there’s cape canaveral there and it looked juuust west of that soo yea no doesn’t miss Florida

the CENTER stays offshore and does not make landfall...nothing I've said there is wrong, it DOES miss Florida. Doesn't mean theres no impact, but the center and probably eyewall both stays offshore.

That line up there would be no way it misses cape canaveral so yes it would hit land also you miss a whole 24 hours which is a lot of time so yea...

[Storm Battered]

Local meteorologist on the news looking at live at Euro coming in says this is great news for Florida. Says he thinks others will follow suit here soon. Says people can start breathing a little easier but still be cautious.

He can look at the most recent EURO all he wants. Just because one run recurves it a bit doesn't mean the storm will follow suit. I hope he was emphatic on that "be cautious" part?

[LarryWx]

Euro: center will miss SC. Now let's see about NC.

[jfk08c]

Well there you have it, folks. No landfall in Florida. All clear!

/s

Keep in mind that is 4 days out, anyone starting to relax might want to reevaluate. If you're in the cone, there's still a chance

[marionstorm]

I'm just glad the center of the state will be safe now that Euro keeps it offshore.

[norva13x]

Local meteorologist on the news looking at live at Euro coming in says this is great news for Florida. Says he thinks others will follow suit here soon. Says people can start breathing a little easier but still be cautious.

Seems a rather bold statement considering the swings we have seen. I am not breathing much easier yet based on this single run. If it does trend this way, cool, but it hasn't quite yet.

[mlfreeman]

GFS 06z trended towards the UKMET and ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/07ZBOex.png

Where did you get this image of the UKMet ensembles?
I swear I found it once, but I can't dig it up again and I want to organize my bookmarks better.

You can get the ensembles here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ncep
Operational runs are here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Pretty fun tool with UKMET/ECMWF ensembles to mess around with as well: https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Thanks!
I've been hitting the operational version, didn't realize the ensembles were there too.

[chris_fit]

[jdjaguar]

looking at that run it looks like west palm would have TS strength winds for like 40+ hours as it just sits on the coastline, that would still be very destructive wouldn't it?

yes, it would. but not 140MPH destructive.

[gatorcane]

JMA big recurve and just scrapes the Outer Banks

[caneman]

This is a huge failure in modeling if it verifies and misses Florida all together. A lot of people will be mad and go back to their cynical ways. Heck, even in west Florida people are emptying stores and gas stations.