ATL: DORIAN - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3901 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:31 pm

Let me remind you that the Euro has not been that great with Dorian past its 72-96 hrs, lol.
At 72 hrs since it past the VI Islands, almost perfect.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3902 Postby Airboy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:31 pm

Probably need to wait to Sunday before we know where it will go.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3903 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:31 pm

StormingB81 wrote:
KWT wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:
No it doesn’t stay off shore...there’s cape canaveral there and it looked juuust west of that soo yea no doesn’t miss Florida


the CENTER stays offshore and does not make landfall...nothing I've said there is wrong, it DOES miss Florida. Doesn't mean theres no impact, but the center and probably eyewall both stays offshore.


That line up there would be no way it misses cape canaveral so yes it would hit land also you miss a whole 24 hours which is a lot of time so yea...


Well it does, wait till you can see the 6hrs charts, but the CENTER 100% misses it. I'm not sure about the W.Eyewall but I think that just stays offshore, at least the worst of it.

NO landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3904 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:32 pm

12Z Euro: At 156 center still offshore NC. Looks like it will stay offshore the entire US SE coast! Wow, what a run! I need a drink. :wink:
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3905 Postby Raebie » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:32 pm

That's not good for the Cape Fear basin. At.all.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3906 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:32 pm

ALL models have been inconsistent but one and that's the ICON lol but the rest of them have been everywhere especially today
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3907 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:33 pm

Local meteorologist on the news looking at live at Euro coming in says this is great news for Florida. Says he thinks others will follow suit here soon. Says people can start breathing a little easier but still be cautious.


Cmon, that can't be accurate. I cant see someone saying that on air based on 1 model run of a 5-day outlook that approaches the coast as a CAT 4.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3908 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:33 pm

Well the euro is interesting. Doesn't make landfall so far and heads up the coast. The ensembles were showing something like this earlier. Landfall could happen farther north though...

Image
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3909 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:33 pm

Oh. Boy 100 pages of trending out to sea lol..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3910 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:34 pm

KWT wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:
KWT wrote:
the CENTER stays offshore and does not make landfall...nothing I've said there is wrong, it DOES miss Florida. Doesn't mean theres no impact, but the center and probably eyewall both stays offshore.


That line up there would be no way it misses cape canaveral so yes it would hit land also you miss a whole 24 hours which is a lot of time so yea...


Well it does, wait till you can see the 6hrs charts, but the CENTER 100% misses it. I'm not sure about the W.Eyewall but I think that just stays offshore, at least the worst of it.

NO landfall.


Easy for someone to say who loves across the pond and not right next to Cape Canaveral I stand by what I said that what you are saying is very ignorant
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3911 Postby ChucktownStormer » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Tomorrow models will likely have this OTS. Hopefully before people dump thousands of dollars into evacuation costs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3912 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Good, recurve is back on the table. We must always expect this BUT it's only one model run. Keep in mind when the models show out to sea sometimes it comes a lot closer. 50 miles is a big deal to us, not a big deal to longer term models.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3913 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Where Dorian makes that north turn is the question. Models thought further west yesterday, now east today. Still have 72 hours to watch it play out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3914 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:35 pm

This could turn into a problem for the carolinas

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3915 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:37 pm

It's just toooo close - But I like the trend and possibility.....

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3916 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:37 pm

Yes it's just one run from the Euro but the same result basically from multiple models now. Better upper level sampling?
Last edited by toad strangler on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3917 Postby nativefloridian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:38 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:ALL models have been inconsistent but one and that's the ICON lol but the rest of them have been everywhere especially today


Looking back over the past three days of ICON runs on Tropical Tidbits, it has been extremely consistent with very minor variations, unlike the other models that have flip-flopped back and forth on pretty much every run. Just curious as to why the ICON model is pretty much ignored by most but yet has been the most consistent with Dorian's projected path.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3918 Postby Raebie » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:38 pm

Well while Florida throws a collective party after this run, the Carolinas freak the heck out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3919 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:38 pm

Anything can still happen really... That stall in Bahamas is killer. One wobble S and it might miss the weakness and ridging rebuilds.... It's still 4 days out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3920 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:39 pm

Could be the sign of good trends but I'd say the carolinas have to pay attention to this as well if Dorian doesn't interact with land and weaken around Florida. It's possible this could go ots if it keeps trending this way

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