ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looking at WV, it appears 4 mesovorts are on the eyewall.
2 are producing heavy lightning

[GCANE]

Possibly the beginnings of another big hot tower started to pop along the SW eyewall in the last couple of frames.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... =1038.9375

Lots of lightning with this one

[StPeteMike]

I don’t think the models don’t have a clear understanding yet of what the ridge is going to do 4 days out.

[ouragans]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

I would suggest to keep it for Sunday afternoon, because the first TS force winds are not expected before Sunday 8PM. But don't miss it

[Ian2401]

why do some of the models show a stall? what's causing it to stall

[got ants?]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

I would suggest to keep it for Sunday afternoon, because the first TS force winds are not expected before Sunday 8PM. But don't miss it

I'll 2nd this. I hate MIA with a passion, and would pay more to fly out of FLL

[nativefloridian]

I have a chance to move my Sunday afternoon flight out of FLL to Sunday morning out of MIA, for a huge cost. Still I would do it if it makes a big difference.

Any suggestions?

I would suggest to keep it for Sunday afternoon, because the first TS force winds are not expected before Sunday 8PM. But don't miss it

The NHC site shows the expected tropical storm force winds to be near the South Florida coastline by Sunday 8am.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167497551446102016

[wx98]

The ECMWF now misses Florida, turning north off the coast. Interested to see if a long term trend develops out of this or if it wipes back south to WPB.

[Do_For_Love]

The NHC site shows the expected tropical storm force winds to be near the South Florida coastline by Sunday 8am.

Do airplanes typically suspend flights when TS winds are present? Never had to deal with that myself...

[Michele B]

why do some of the models show a stall? what's causing it to stall

Steering currents move away.

[Nimbus]

why do some of the models show a stall? what's causing it to stall

Lack of steering winds as it gets near the coast.
Starting rapid intensification cycle now and still chugging along WNW.
We probably want a slower track since the 12Z models are mostly showing a northward turn near the coast.
Maybe some trochoidal wobbles or a change in the dynamic environment due to cat 5 outflow would cause a stall off the coast of Florida?
There are lightning strikes over Texas but they aren't moving east very fast.

[nativefloridian]

The NHC site shows the expected tropical storm force winds to be near the South Florida coastline by Sunday 8am.

Do airplanes typically suspend flights when TS winds are present? Never had to deal with that myself...

As it relates to Miami International Airport (MIA) the air traffic control tower will close if sustained wind speeds reach 55 miles per hour

[Michele B]

Just read on another forum that up in Michigan temperature just dropped about 5° in one hour.

Sounds like a cold front getting ready to dip down. I wonder if that will affect Dorian?

Could he get picked up sooner and really and truly end up OTS???

[GCANE]

The NHC site shows the expected tropical storm force winds to be near the South Florida coastline by Sunday 8am.

Do airplanes typically suspend flights when TS winds are present? Never had to deal with that myself...

As it relates to Miami International Airport (MIA) the air traffic control tower will close if sustained wind speeds reach 55 miles per hour

I have seen three airplanes take off from Savannah in the mid 80's when the eye of a TS went over the airport.

Was it Kate? I lived in Savannah with that one, and the only time I experienced the 'eye' of a cyclone. It was eerie for sure.

[Highteeld]

TXNT28 KNES 301817
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 30/1801Z

C. 24.9N

D. 70.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dorian could be Hugo's twin





...and no its not photoshopped.

[Highteeld]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 182019 UTC
Lat : 24:57:35 N Lon : 70:18:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Patrick99]

I haven’t seen a lot on the why. Why do the models have this hard right now? What comes by to just scoop it up like that?