ATL: DORIAN - Models

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1167519207904485376




 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1167520118747930624

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1167519807014674432

Operational flies to the NE meanwhile every ensemble hooks left . Smh.

[Aric Dunn]

This surface low developing over the florida straights may play a larger roll in the track of Dorian. It appears to be a little more substantial than the EUro is showing.

[Mouton]

The coming NHC advisory will be interesting...last real one before public signs off. I would estimate they will be conservative and probably nudge their move to the right maybe 75 miles or so due to the movement in the models and if they get info the ridge is not building as fast or as much as expected. At the 11 edt advisory, they put in a sharp move to the right after landfall already so they may not want to overdo it. That is my sense of what they will say. For a final path, Mathew is a potential but just a 50 mile west of its path would be far more destructive compared to the actual damage that occurred. FWIW, our Fernandina barometer has been dropping the past few hours which would belie a notion the ridge is building west. Lastly, above Vero, the in close water temps, west side of the GS, are unseasonably cool.

3 days ago, based on a WAG, I drew a line at 80w as west most advance. I'd love to be correct. Models with a good record show cat 4 intensity with a few at the mid point. NO 5s.

[Sciencerocks]

I made my forecast 60 hours ago that this was going to make landfall in martin county/st.lucie and I am sticking to it. I'll either be right or I'll be eating a plate of crow.

This one run like all the others is 90% likely to shift back next run or the run after that as they have done so at least 3 times within the past 4 days.

[NDG]

12Z Euro ensemble: Many more members miss FL to the east than hit FL...maybe 2/3 of them.

Hopefully is a trend and not a false one.

[AutoPenalti]

This surface low developing over the florida straights may play a larger roll in the track of Dorian. It appears to be a little more substantial than the EUro is showing.

It could, it would probably open up a gap between the two highs.

[wxman57]

Note to all - this thread is to post model data. The discussion is for the Discussion thread.

[NDG]

This is incredible, just 24 hrs ago everythig was pointing to S FL and now this from the Euro with only 15 members now showing a landfall in FL. Back to drinking

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1167510645954269186

[tarheelprogrammer]

Any EPS members hitting the Carolinas?

[CourierPR]

This surface low developing over the florida straights may play a larger roll in the track of Dorian. It appears to be a little more substantial than the Euro is showing.

How do you think it would influence Dorian?

[Orlando]

Could someone with professional knowledge explain to us exactly how the models know how and what to predict? Someone mentioned earlier something about atmospheric machines regarding model predictions. What exactly are those and how do they work?

[Kingarabian]

I'm not surprised of this shift east by the models, and I'm pretty sure most aren't. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted back west into Florida. We won't know for sure until probably late this weekend. It's always important to look at the ensembles and try factor in each individual members solution. Because yesterday's CMC ensemble runs had the mean east of Florida, while some Euro and some GFS members showed similar scenarios despite the means being further west. And now the operational models have followed suit and shifted east.

[kaystorm94]

This is incredible, just 24 hrs ago everythig was pointing to S FL and now this from the Euro with only 15 members now showing a landfall in FL. Back to drinking

https://i.imgur.com/oyLuv76.png

Is it crazy to say we still have our family Disney trip planned? Arriving Wednesday, the 4th. I have been keeping up with this thread for 4-5 days now and praying it misses Florida! Waiting until early Monday to make the call to cancel or not.

[Aric Dunn]

This surface low developing over the florida straights may play a larger roll in the track of Dorian. It appears to be a little more substantial than the Euro is showing.

How do you think it would influence Dorian?

that is a very good question. They appear close enough to interact .. so it could help keep dorian moving more westerly before turning. .. assuming the ridge breaks down.

[supercane4867]

I'm very skeptical on the 12z EC runs. Late August/Early September climo doesn't favor a such abrupt OTS curve. Even If Dorian misses FL it would still hit SC/NC.

Remember Floyd took such route two weeks into September, not on the 1st.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is incredible, just 24 hrs ago everythig was pointing to S FL and now this from the Euro with only 15 members now showing a landfall in FL. Back to drinking

https://i.imgur.com/oyLuv76.png

I'm not sure what effect it'll have but one can also see every single EPS member is way too weak with Dorian.

[Kazmit]

This is incredible, just 24 hrs ago everythig was pointing to S FL and now this from the Euro with only 15 members now showing a landfall in FL. Back to drinking

https://i.imgur.com/oyLuv76.png

Is it crazy to say we still have our family Disney trip planned? Arriving Wednesday, the 4th. I have been keeping up with this thread for 4-5 days now and praying it misses Florida! Waiting until early Monday to make the call to cancel or not.

By then a consensus will have been reached. IMO, I doubt it will miss Florida, and even if it does, impacts will still be felt.

[stormlover2013]

I'm very skeptical on the 12z EC runs. Late August/Early September climo doesn't favor a such abrupt OTS curve. Even If Dorian misses FL it would still hit SC/NC.

Remember Floyd took such route two weeks into September, not on the 1st.

throw climo out, this year troughs have been stronger then normal and cold fronts, I mean heck we had a cold front make it to the gulf in late july or early august this year. Pattern has been weird all hurricane season this year.