ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3541 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:56 pm

Is there word on whether Dorian has started the turn west. John Morales in NBC6 just said it’s starting the turn on a brief update
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3542 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:57 pm

AF307 has just taken off on an unassigned mission to Dorian. Unlikely it'll make it to Dorian before 5pm though.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3543 Postby Mouton » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:58 pm

Posted this on the wrong board:

The coming NHC advisory will be interesting...last real one before public signs off. I would estimate they will be conservative and probably nudge their move to the right maybe 75 miles or so due to the movement in the models and if they get info the ridge is not building as fast or as much as expected. At the 11 edt advisory, they put in a sharp move to the right after landfall so they may not want to overdo it. For a final path, Mathew is a potential but just a 50 mile west of its path would be far more destructive compared to the actual damage that occurred. FWIW, our Fernandina barometer has been dropping the past few hours which would belie a notion the ridge is building west. Lastly, above Vero, the in closein water temps, west side of the GS, are unseasonably cool.

3 days ago, based on a WAG, I drew a line at 80w as west most advance. I'd love to be correct. Models with a good record show cat 4 intensity with a few at the mid point. NO 5s.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3544 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:59 pm

caneseddy wrote:Is there word on whether Dorian has started the turn west. John Morales in NBC6 just said it’s starting the turn on a brief update


looking at sat. it sure looks just north of west..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3545 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:01 pm

Dorian has been on the right side of the error cone most of his life... It was supposed to hit Hispaniola a few days out and missed PR to the east...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3546 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:01 pm

[quote="aperson"]Eye temps are shooting up. Currently a real warm spot in the eye that naively looks to me like a mesovort mixing around.

{/quote]

Just for fun

"Tropical cyclones can become annular as a result of eyewall mesovortices mixing the strong winds found in the eyewalls of storms with the weak winds of the eye, which helps to expand the eye. In addition, this process helps to make the equivalent potential temperature (often referred to as theta-e or {\displaystyle \theta _{e}} \theta _{e}) within the eye relatively uniform. "
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3547 Postby b0tzy29 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:03 pm

Holy cow! - look at that convection around the eye.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3548 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:03 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:AF307 has just taken off on an unassigned mission to Dorian. Unlikely it'll make it to Dorian before 5pm though.



Dorian is close enough now and the NHC will agressively sample the high pressure out in front and I expect in the next few NHC Disco's a conclusion the HP was stronger or weaker than expected...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3549 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:06 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3550 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:06 pm

Is this north of due west turn earlier than the models are saying? What does this mean for the eventual track a south shift and stall near Miami/Ft. Lauderdale instead of Jupiter?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3551 Postby rickybobby » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:07 pm

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.
Last edited by rickybobby on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3552 Postby Airboy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:09 pm

Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for an hour, or at least not moving much
Last edited by Airboy on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3553 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:10 pm

Airboy wrote:Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3554 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:11 pm

b0tzy29 wrote:Holy cow! - look at that convection around the eye.

[url]https://media.giphy.com/media/LPYsmAvGq7wjMS1DZO/source.gif[url]


That convection around the eye is still a little too warm thus its holding up Dvorak estimates from going higher.
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3555 Postby Kat5 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:13 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Airboy wrote:Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.


On a NW to WNW/West turn? Doubtful, it might had hit a weak steering pocket.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3556 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:14 pm

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3557 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:15 pm

They mean an earlier western turn. Not a turn to the north. That won't happen near the Bahamas or over Florida if it happens.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3558 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:15 pm

If the storm turns more due west (or even south of west) sooner watch for the Euro wiper back left on the 0z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3559 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:16 pm

rickybobby wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Airboy wrote:Looks to me it have pretty much stalled for on hour, or at least not moving much

A sign that the turn is imminent.


Looks like Florida won’t get hit


Unless you're a met/pro forecaster, don't make statements like this. They can get people's hopes up for no reason. You aren't giving space to the idea that this is a minor wobble in the path of a hurricane that may mean nothing.

Official forecast still has Florida taking a direct hit. Until that chances, we need to keep the -removed- to a minimum.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3560 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:16 pm

ozonepete wrote:
rickybobby wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:A sign that the turn is imminent.


Looks like Florida won’t get hit


Please don't do that without saying it's an amateur's opinion. A lot of people on here might take you seriously and of course you don't want that responsibility, right?


I make a lot of predictions (half of which end up wrong :lol: ) and have kept the disclaimer in my sig for that reason.

On that note, the Euro seems to be the outlier at the moment so I wouldn't base anything off of one run. While I'm leaning towards Matthew track myself, everybody from Miami to the Outer Banks needs to prepare for a direct hit from a major.
Last edited by Hammy on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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