ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CryHavoc]

What a stunning storm. To think this has potentially 96 more hours over water...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4252a9d19a9f48056c49b654566ea3e9d5f69c945c2ab537562948157450e333.gif

How amazing/fortunate are we to see such high quality images of the mesovorts inside a major hurricane eye. Incredible.

Tops still blowing up around the eyewall. If he doesn't meet the criteria for RI, he still looks like a very healthy/strengthening cat 3 storm.

[pcolaman]

Hey guys been awhile. Well what a storm we have here ! Looking at the current motion of Dorian , it does appear to have turned to the north for awhile at the moment . This storm has been one for the record books for sure going against model runs and scooting around islands and landmasses .When the models have come to an agreement he seems to want to do his own thing. Looks like the steering currents are trying to play some tricks on us and def has confused us. I remember that we use to didn't rely on models past 3 days and now we looks 5 to 7 days out for answers. Guess we learn from the past and not to put so much trust past 3 days . JMHO

[jlauderdal]

Seriously, this Wesh 2 stuff needs to stop. NHC are not going to shift an entire cone over one run. They do not model hug and for him to expect stuff like this just seems wrong.

A 50 mile track adjustment to the east doesn't seemunreasonable, the cone moves in tandem with track as its pure statistics

Not over one model run.

it has ensemble support and gfs trends, we will know shortly

[Highteeld]

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 29( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 11 10( 20) 22( 38) 27( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[BrandonJay21]

What a stunning storm. To think this has potentially 96 more hours over water...

I can’t... this is a beautiful gif. Dangerous? Of course.... but nature is gosh darn amazing.


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[CryHavoc]

Hey guys been awhile. Well what a storm we have here ! Looking at the current motion of Dorian , it does appear to have turned to the north for awhile at the moment . This storm has been one for the record books for sure going against model runs and scooting around islands and landmasses .When the models have come to an agreement he seems to want to do his own thing. Looks like the steering currents are trying to play some tricks on us and def has confused us. I remember that we use to didn't rely on models past 3 days and now we looks 5 to 7 days out for answers. Guess we learn from the past and not to put so much trust past 3 days . JMHO

I think the mets putting out the forecasts on this storm have done an admirable job of admitting the models are simply guidance, and that we have been historically very dubious about where this storm is going to go. It might not reflect so great on our current models, but the awareness that they might be pretty far off the mark on this storm has been a promising indicator that we know when they don't have a good solution on the coming days.

This is a tough science, and even the best in the world are left scratching their heads some days. This one we knew was going to be a toughie -- I don't think any Mets are sitting around the office confounded about how it "fooled" the models.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27wqgGX/Capture.png[url]

It indeed does look like an ERC is in progress:

[Hammy]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27wqgGX/Capture.png[url]

It indeed does look like an ERC is in progress:
https://i.imgur.com/yvTarue.jpg

Strange how some storms seem to go through these cycles several times and others don't seem to have them at all. Any known reason for this.

[JtSmarts]

For all you oldheads on the forum. MikeWatkins, one of the original super-amateurs from the beginnings of s2k is doing videos again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkksPw3sAZ8

[Blown Away]

Dorian looks a little R of the track now... Starting to feel optimistic...

[fci]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

It's almost certainly going to hit land. Just not clear where but somewhere from central FL to Hatteras.

I'm not sure you can really say that. While it very well might hit land, the models are trending towards a solution that it could stay offshore.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wesh 2’s Tony said he expects the cone to move to the east by maybe 50 miles at the 5pm update. There’s hope the it will recurve and not hit any land and that chance is increasing.

It's almost certainly going to hit land. Just not clear where but somewhere from central FL to Hatteras.

I'm not sure you can really say that. While it very well might hit land, the models are trending towards a solution that it could stay offshore.

That doesn’t mean that they won’t trend back. Dorian really has no real escape route. If it doesn’t make landfall, it’d be very very close.

[pcolaman]

Hey guys been awhile. Well what a storm we have here ! Looking at the current motion of Dorian , it does appear to have turned to the north for awhile at the moment . This storm has been one for the record books for sure going against model runs and scooting around islands and landmasses .When the models have come to an agreement he seems to want to do his own thing. Looks like the steering currents are trying to play some tricks on us and def has confused us. I remember that we use to didn't rely on models past 3 days and now we looks 5 to 7 days out for answers. Guess we learn from the past and not to put so much trust past 3 days . JMHO

I think the mets putting out the forecasts on this storm have done an admirable job of admitting the models are simply guidance, and that we have been historically very dubious about where this storm is going to go. It might not reflect so great on our current models, but the awareness that they might be pretty far off the mark on this storm has been a promising indicator that we know when they don't have a good solution on the coming days.

This is a tough science, and even the best in the world are left scratching their heads some days. This one we knew was going to be a toughie -- I don't think any Mets are sitting around the office confounded about how it "fooled" the models.

Not implying anything against anyone what so ever. Was just stating the obvious that sometimes mother nature does what she wants and science doesn't always have the upper hand . These guys are really great at what they do and have admired for year of there hard work. I would be here if I didn't have confidence in there forecasting and there options. Have followed Storm2k from the years of Ivan and before . Thank you guys for what you do always ...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Dorian looks a little R of the track now... Starting to feel optimistic...

The 2 pm position was dead on from the 5 am forecast this morning:

INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30
Location: 24.8°N 70.3°W

[fci]

Hey guys been awhile. Well what a storm we have here ! Looking at the current motion of Dorian , it does appear to have turned to the north for awhile at the moment . This storm has been one for the record books for sure going against model runs and scooting around islands and landmasses .When the models have come to an agreement he seems to want to do his own thing. Looks like the steering currents are trying to play some tricks on us and def has confused us. I remember that we use to didn't rely on models past 3 days and now we looks 5 to 7 days out for answers. Guess we learn from the past and not to put so much trust past 3 days . JMHO

Did you mean to say "turn to the north"?

[pcolaman]

For all you oldheads on the forum. MikeWatkins, one of the original super-amateurs from the beginnings of s2k is doing videos again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkksPw3sAZ8

WOW Mr Mike !! Always enjoyed his theory's and discussions !!!

[aperson]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27wqgGX/Capture.png[url]

It indeed does look like an ERC is in progress:
https://i.imgur.com/yvTarue.jpg

Strange how some storms seem to go through these cycles several times and others don't seem to have them at all. Any known reason for this.

Well this storm has had rounds dry air ingestion twice, one from PR and one from Hispaniola. And now it's in the process of reconfiguring its TPW fetch from the ITCZ to a rich moisture tap to the west instead. I think in this case synoptics keep causing dynamics to shift which destabilizes the eye and triggers an ERC.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/AlexLubbers2/status/1167532742474530817

[pgoss11]

For all you oldheads on the forum. MikeWatkins, one of the original super-amateurs from the beginnings of s2k is doing videos again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkksPw3sAZ8

I remember Mike from the “old” days. He was great and so knowledgeable. Thanks for the link.

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks like another ERC is starting.. some evidence of inner convection firing and an outer ring of convection.. hard to say but sure looks like it ..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27wqgGX/Capture.png[url]

It indeed does look like an ERC is in progress:
https://i.imgur.com/yvTarue.jpg

Strange how some storms seem to go through these cycles several times and others don't seem to have them at all. Any known reason for this.

My guess is theta-e related. That the storm passes through anomalously high SSTs; The radial inflow kicks up higher entropy air and the inflow of the secondary circulation gets cut off. Dorian dealt with low entropy air all its life and probably some remnants of that remain so this happens more frequently. Michael for example had no dry air to contend with (but also short longevity).