ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

He's very likely a 130-135mph Cat 4 right now. Very strong IR/Visible presentation with a very clear eye.

[Siker]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is the NHC hesitating on calling this a cat 4 right now? It definitely has the appearance of one that is for sure. Any METS have an opinion on this?

[EquusStorm]

The eye symmetry in just the last 3-4 frames... wow Going full-on buzzsaw here

[BYG Jacob]

For sure, they could.
But, the trend here is towards a "climatological solution" so the possibility truly exists that it will not make landfall.
Not true that there is no real escape route as it relates to hitting the CONUS.
Northern Bahamas are another story.

Climatological "solutions" have no place in a discussion about the path of one hurricane. There's no data to support your hypothesis.

Wow. Climatology is based purely on historical data.
So to say there is "no data" is false.
Now if you are claiming there is no data from Dorian today, I'll give you that.
If we stacked up all the scenarios, climatology would win out as the most common solution because it is based on what has actually happened many times.

It is also not the be all end all, and not relevant in this synoptic setup

[CronkPSU]

if he was upgraded, that would be almost a full 36 hours before the NHC forecast....always thought they underestimated the intensity in the short term....we can all speculate what. cat 4 or 5 earlier in the run means long term

[Evenstar]

Off topic, but does anyone else have carpal tunnel from clicking refresh for days on end?

BTW, I love Storm2k. I believe someone referred to it as a subculture and I agree. It's a brilliant, motley crew of weather nuts and I enjoy coming here every season.

[supercane4867]

You can see the stadium effect taking shape in the eye now. WOW

[Buck]

Why is the NHC hesitating on calling this a cat 4 right now? It definitely has the appearance of one that is for sure. Any METS have an opinion on this?

I was surprised intensity was maintained at 5PM, but they never jump the gun. Special advisories will be issued if necessary and post-season analysis frequently sees changes to intensity.

[stormhunter7]

pretty cool visible imagery with he cirrus being pulled into the ULL over the straights today....

[fci]

Climatological "solutions" have no place in a discussion about the path of one hurricane. There's no data to support your hypothesis.

Wow. Climatology is based purely on historical data.
So to say there is "no data" is false.
Now if you are claiming there is no data from Dorian today, I'll give you that.
If we stacked up all the scenarios, climatology would win out as the most common solution because it is based on what has actually happened many times.

It is also not the be all end all, and not relevant in this synoptic setup

Never claimed to be strictly a believer in climatology but to say it is not relevant I think is naive.

[ronyan]

Why is the NHC hesitating on calling this a cat 4 right now? It definitely has the appearance of one that is for sure. Any METS have an opinion on this?

I was surprised intensity was maintained at 5PM, but they never jump the gun. Special advisories will be issued if necessary and post-season analysis frequently sees changes to intensity.

In my amateur opinion they could have gone with 125mph. I would guess recon is going to find this at least 135.

[michelinj]

Over in the UK the GFS 18Z is known as the ‘Pub run’ and is known for putting out strange outputs so I wouldn’t be surprised if something different is shown from it.

I feel lucky being able to watch this beast from the safety of London. Good luck to anyone in the forecast cone, stay safe and prepared but marvel at the wonder of nature at the same time!

Happy hunting, James

[BYG Jacob]

Wow. Climatology is based purely on historical data.
So to say there is "no data" is false.
Now if you are claiming there is no data from Dorian today, I'll give you that.
If we stacked up all the scenarios, climatology would win out as the most common solution because it is based on what has actually happened many times.

It is also not the be all end all, and not relevant in this synoptic setup

Never claimed to be strictly a believer in climatology but to say it is not relevant I think is naive.

It mostly is, the best bet is to view each storm within its own synoptic setup.

[stormhunter7]

Why is the NHC hesitating on calling this a cat 4 right now? It definitely has the appearance of one that is for sure. Any METS have an opinion on this?

I was surprised intensity was maintained at 5PM, but they never jump the gun. Special advisories will be issued if necessary and post-season analysis frequently sees changes to intensity.

In my amateur opinion they could have gone with 125mph.

Kermit is halfway there, they will wait for obs from plane to confirm.

[Hammy]

I was surprised intensity was maintained at 5PM, but they never jump the gun. Special advisories will be issued if necessary and post-season analysis frequently sees changes to intensity.

In my amateur opinion they could have gone with 125mph.

Kermit is halfway there, they will wait for obs from plane to confirm.

Any word on ETA?

[stormhunter7]

In my amateur opinion they could have gone with 125mph.

Kermit is halfway there, they will wait for obs from plane to confirm.

Any word on ETA?

within an hour... https://fr24.com/NOAA42/21e8c3f5 they are at 76w and need to get to 71w

[ozonepete]

I'm not sure you can really say that. While it very well might hit land, the models are trending towards a solution that it could stay offshore.

The models are trending toward a solution that it could stay offshore of Florida, not offshore of the entire southeast coast.
I said "almost certainly" not certainly. The great majority of tracks includng ensemble members show it hitting land somewhere before going out to sea. this is because, if you look at the steering currents from now until 10 days out, the least plausible path is out to sea without ever hitting land. That's just what the models said. So the models support almost certainly. Ok?

You are the Pro sir, so I defer to you. Appreciate the discussion!

I forgot to say: Good to see you again my friend. Long time. )

[xironman]

Intensity matters. The old "Pump up the ridge" scenario.

[psyclone]

Dorian looks like a mid range cat 4 140 or 145mph system with that perfect symmetrical eye. EYE can't wait for recon