ATL: DORIAN - Models

[MacTavish]

So in summary, 18z gfs is slightly faster and stronger than the 12z but essentially on the same track

[MrJames]

[caneman]

So in summary, 18z gfs is slightly faster and stronger than the 12z but especially on the same track

And faster though and no stall it rides up the spine

[hurricaneCW]

So in summary, 18z gfs is slightly faster and stronger than the 12z but especially on the same track

It's a good deal further east.

[FLpanhandle91]

So in summary, 18z gfs is slightly faster and stronger than the 12z but especially on the same track

It's a good deal further east.

Great deal is an exaggeration. 20 miles maybe.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 96-120:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are slowly trending east. GFS might be seeing what the ECMWF sees. Hopefully, it doesn't spend too much time over the Bahamas.

[Kat5]

That doesnt mean definite. Could be trapped between steering currents

Turns NW/NNW at 102 hours.

That by no means is a quick turn and if it dips just 50 more miles wsw it's a whole different solution

Never mentioned a “quick turn” and refer to post 4116 by Aric Dunn for a detailed chart

[MacTavish]

So in summary, 18z gfs is slightly faster and stronger than the 12z but especially on the same track

It's a good deal further east.

20-25 miles after 3 days is negligible

[supercane4867]

Both 18z GFS runs are too far west for Dorian to miss SC/NC. Legacy landfalling on SC coast

[beachman80]

Models are slowly trending east. GFS might be seeing what the ECMWF sees. Hopefully, it doesn't spend too much time over the Bahamas.

Yup huge shift east today. Breathing a lot easier here in Tampa Bay.

[funster]

Sad Summary: Another very ugly run with much of the east coast of Florida pounded.

[Blown Away]

On the other hand...ICON is wayyy west offshore Tampa at end of the run

Yes

[TTARider]

actually.. I'm getting serious Irma vibes, not matthew... 5 days out this was very similar to the predicted path for irma.. and it went well west of the center

[Blown Away]

Models are slowly trending east. GFS might be seeing what the ECMWF sees. Hopefully, it doesn't spend too much time over the Bahamas.

It's a bit S and W as it nears the FL Central coast and a little E of 12z up by Jacksonville...

[BobHarlem]

GFS has another landfall near Charleston, SC thursday morning, GFS Legacy a bit north of there (Merril's Inlet?)

[Blown Away]

actually.. I'm getting serious Irma vibes, not matthew... 5 days out this was very similar to the predicted path for irma.. and it went well west of the center

https://cmgpbpeyeonthestorm.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-thurs-2am.jpg

Thanks track prediction was pretty good, Irma went up just W of the center of the Florida peninsula...

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 120-150:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That's a landfall. Right over NASA


https://i.imgur.com/In532Rf.png

Not saying it was aliens...but...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

actually.. I'm getting serious Irma vibes, not matthew... 5 days out this was very similar to the predicted path for irma.. and it went well west of the center

https://cmgpbpeyeonthestorm.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-thurs-2am.jpg

Thanks track prediction was pretty good, Irma went up just W of the center of the Florida peninsula...

Not really. It was more the west coast of florida. And nobody really was sure until about 2 days