ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3681 Postby vortex100 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:24 pm

Shear on south side of Dorian has diminished considerably. Very good outflow and satellite presentation of the eye. Looks like a good cat 4. Models are currently trending as a storm that will sideswipe the central and northern Florida coast. Anywhere from there to North Carolina should stay alert!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3682 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:24 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
xironman wrote:Intensity matters. The old "Pump up the ridge" scenario.

I have not heard this discussed for Dorian. Anyone that can help, please elaborate.


Old saw that when storms get very intense they can push out enough air to raise the pressure to the north. Not backed by scientific data.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3683 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:24 pm

Highteeld wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20190830215857.jpg


The cloud tops need to get brighter; it's a bit over T5.5 right now. If I were to look at it from my naked eye I'd go 105 kt, but we'll know the true intensity in about 90 minutes.

Irma threw ADT for a loop. Just a gut feeling here

But Irma had much colder cloud tops than Dorian has presently. So even though Recon is likely to find a storm stronger than what Dvorak estimates, the satellite estimate won't be too far off. The deviations begin (as in Irma's case) is when the system attains very cold cloud tops and a warm clear eye but Dvorak requirements are still not met.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3684 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:26 pm

Intensity is inversely proportional to the number of mesovorts.
A perfect ring, I see no mesovorts.
High-end Cat 4 or Cat 5
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3685 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
The cloud tops need to get brighter; it's a bit over T5.5 right now. If I were to look at it from my naked eye I'd go 105 kt, but we'll know the true intensity in about 90 minutes.

Irma threw ADT for a loop. Just a gut feeling here

But Irma had much colder cloud tops than Dorian has presently. So even though Recon is likely to find a storm stronger than what Dvorak estimates, the satellite estimate won't be too far off. The deviations begin (as in Irma's case) is when the system attains very cold cloud tops and a warm clear eye but Dvorak requirements are still not met.

Irma was a 6.5 (knes) when recon found 155 kt
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3686 Postby wx98 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:27 pm

JBCycloneStan wrote:Wow 1 degree Celsius warming of the eye in 10 minutes?? This is deepening fast.

That’s what I was thinking...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3687 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:27 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Another hot tower firing up in the eyewall...Beast mode


https://i.imgur.com/VDTyPph.jpg


WOW! I bet some birds are going to have to stay along for the ride with this one :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3688 Postby aperson » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:30 pm

GCANE wrote:Intensity is inversely proportional to the number of mesovorts.
A perfect ring, I see no mesovorts.
High-end Cat 4 or Cat 5


Agreed, with that eye temp I think the outer ring color is way underestimated by ADT now. This looks like a 120kt 945mb system to me.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3689 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
The cloud tops need to get brighter; it's a bit over T5.5 right now. If I were to look at it from my naked eye I'd go 105 kt, but we'll know the true intensity in about 90 minutes.

Irma threw ADT for a loop. Just a gut feeling here

But Irma had much colder cloud tops than Dorian has presently. So even though Recon is likely to find a storm stronger than what Dvorak estimates, the satellite estimate won't be too far off. The deviations begin (as in Irma's case) is when the system attains very cold cloud tops and a warm clear eye but Dvorak requirements are still not met.


Cold cloud tops are overrated, as storms move further north they can't produce the kind of cold tops you'd see in the tropics.

Irma was considerably further south than Dorian, he's already north of 25N and this isn't the gulf.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3690 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:31 pm

Looks like a very potent 125-135mph storm. I'm guessing presently around 940mb and dropping fast. Winds still got to catch up to the pressure fall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3691 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:31 pm

Tons of lightning still in the eyewall = further stregthening.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3692 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:32 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
fci wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:It is also not the be all end all, and not relevant in this synoptic setup


Never claimed to be strictly a believer in climatology but to say it is not relevant I think is naive.

It mostly is, the best bet is to view each storm within its own synoptic setup.


Of course. But there are levels to peel back that apply to general as well as those that apply to specific situations. For instance, there are some general circumstances one might expect to see in late August which may be completely not applicable in late October. It kind of goes without saying. Also there are a lot of generalities that often apply and are noteworthy such as a perpendicular landfall vs a fade and all that. In Dorian’s case, it was an easy bet to guess the central Florida east coast was probably not going to be hit from the due east. That kind of stuff also matters.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3693 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:33 pm

Hurry and check the last visible. WOW! again!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3694 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:37 pm

lrak wrote:Hurry and check the last visible. WOW! again!


Karl,

That forerunner upper low may work it’s way somewhat down and give you surfable waves early next week. Maybe?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3695 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:37 pm

lrak wrote:Hurry and check the last visible. WOW! again!


Hence my comparison with Izzy. She was perfect and scared the heck out of FL before flattening Hatteras.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3696 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:38 pm

How long till recon arrives? They are going to be arriving at a good time.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3697 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:38 pm

Kat5 wrote:Anybody got an idea on current movement, my reading glasses aren’t as great as I thought.


We might have to wait for recon, long satellite loop looked like 310 -320 but that was with the stadium effect at sunset.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3698 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:38 pm

Image
Last look at visible before dark... Awesome...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3699 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:Last look at visible before dark... Awesome...


I dunno, I'm going to need to see a map with surface plots
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3700 Postby psyclone » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:40 pm

Looks like a giant tornado. exceptional.
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