ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Anyone else starting to get nervous this time of the year. This is almost being to become a yearly to about other year or two tradition for Florida....Prayers!!!!!!

[MacTavish]

If it bombs out this early, id expect time for a couple EWRC and major expantion of the wind field over the next few days

[shiny-pebble]

This looks like a WPAC super typhoon....

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[Nimbus]

Last look at visible before dark... Awesome...

I dunno, I'm going to need to see a map with surface plots

Gonna need an ASCAT to see if there are any westerlies.

Up near 28N the flow from the ridge might be visible moving from east to west. I think they are expecting a gradual turn toward 290 as the mid level ridge starts to steer but storms like to move poleward when they are intensifying.

[Sanibel]

It still has a WNW component thank god...

Nothing like seeing a classic Atlantic monster taking shape, and about to get under a ridge and bee line towards you Andrew-style, with NHC saying don't worry it will turn on a dime at the last second...

[MacTavish]

LMAO

Sorry but that is a "LMAO" comment.

Indeed

[EquusStorm]

Looks like recon is getting very close (<1000mb) - time for even more constant refreshing

[Blinhart]

Shame it might peak in this cycle overnight because woooow what jaw dropping visible imagery we're missing.

Are you talking about this first round of major improvement?? Because I don't think he will reach his max intensity for at least another 36 hours.

As for projections of what recon might find by the time they are done doing all their flights tonight, I will go with a storm with winds about 160 MPH and pressure down to 925. Yes a Cat 5.

[EquusStorm]

Shame it might peak in this cycle overnight because woooow what jaw dropping visible imagery we're missing.

Are you talking about this first round of major improvement?? Because I don't think he will reach his max intensity for at least another 36 hours.

As for projections of what recon might find by the time they are done doing all their flights tonight, I will go with a storm with winds about 160 MPH and pressure down to 925. Yes a Cat 5.

Yeah, the current round of RI; no doubt this is gonna peak even stronger in the Bahamas.

[PavelGaborik10]

That's the best looking "115 MPH" storm I've ever seen.

[KWT]

its not moving straight west but its between w and wnw..

Still looks pretty solid WNW to me looking at IR over a 4hr period, especially now the eye has cleared out completely.

However, certainly in the last hour there has been a jog to the west, hard to say whether thats just a stair step though.

Eyewall still doesn't look impressive enough to me for this to be much above maybe 125kts at the moment, though its certainly strengthening still. Its much stronger than 100kts though I'd suspect.

[psyclone]

This has been so weird to follow here in the Tampa/St Pete area. I know with Irma I felt like I had no idea what was going on until two days before and this seems similar, but I see many people saying they doubt it will turn out to be an Irma situation or even shift back to south/west again. Just curious why that is? I follow most the dialogue on here, but a lot can go over my head ha

Just keep watching. things change. A lower risk doesn't=no risk. Dorian is a fairly small hurricane and you don't need to be too far south and west of a northward moving cane to be off the hook so a skirt near the east coast would be a get out of jail card for us...like Matthew was in 2016. OTOH if things shift back west all bets are off. As of now I feel great here in the Bay area with today's trends...but i'll be the first to admit I've been burned before. I did have a false sense of security when Irma was projected to go east of here. Feel good locally...yes. spiking the football...no way..

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 222019 UTC
Lat : 25:19:47 N Lon : 70:43:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.2mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

Scene Type : EYE

That eye temp...

[aperson]

That eye temp...

18.9C eye on a 5.8. Heh. What do you need for a +1.5 eye adjust?

[supercane4867]

Eye temp is in Irma territory

[pgoss11]

This has been so weird to follow here in the Tampa/St Pete area. I know with Irma I felt like I had no idea what was going on until two days before and this seems similar, but I see many people saying they doubt it will turn out to be an Irma situation or even shift back to south/west again. Just curious why that is? I follow most the dialogue on here, but a lot can go over my head ha

There is a fair amount of regional bias in posts here from time to time. Learning how to weed through that is key to your forum survival

Yes! This is so true.

[Hammy]

Waiting for the next recon update feels like the longest less-than-ten minutes ever.

[storm4u]

Wow this thing is.a Beast.. my girlfriends dad lives in port saint Lucie. Hoping for a east trend

[stormhunter7]

Increase of flight speed to 40+kts inbound, reaching nearly 290kts! Cruising at 230kts. Think they crabbed to the eye!

[supercane4867]

946mb