ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Steve
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3741 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:06 pm

GCANE wrote:I have a sick feeling this goes under 900mb before all said and done


I’d take that bet G. Maybe 930’s? Then again, with 947mb, it could get to 920s maybe even next go round.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3742 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

supercane4867 wrote:946mb


Safe to say rapid intensification underway and this is no longer a 3.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3743 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

946
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3744 Postby edu2703 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3745 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

Weaker side of eyewall 112kts. Definitely a CAT4
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3746 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

EquusStorm wrote:946

Damn I was close lol
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3747 Postby Airboy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:07 pm

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 947.3 mb (27.98 inHg)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3748 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:08 pm

I’d estimate the current intensity at 125kts
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3749 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:09 pm

Highteeld wrote:120 kts/948 mb is my guess based off this IR imagery

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20190830215857.jpg

called it.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3750 Postby got ants? » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:09 pm

I hate this typing a post a d the phone rings, anser phone post gone.

Anyhoos, I'm arguing with my brother in Jupiter, because hoe local forecasters are saying the storm is not going to make landfall, and turn north. I go to me Weather Underground app, and jt shows Dorian making landgall, and then a hard turn north out to sea. I can see those watching the adjusted track as if its a prediction of further changes, like he"s saying, it's not even making landfall. WTF!!!

Seriously, look at the WU app it it now shows Dorian making a gard turn north, and leaving land What are they seeing that I am not?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3751 Postby PanAmMIA » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:09 pm

Absolutely agree. We were securing our place in the Keys and decided to take an overnight in Miami. Got caught up in the Zone A evacs in Dade. Took us 14 hours to get back to Orlando area via the Turnpike...and that was calling it quits at YeeHaw Junction and taking the back roads home. Chance favors the prepared mind. Leave early if you can, have an alternate route or two, and be open to any lodging available. With MCO closing Monday morning at 0200 the tourists are stuck here. Book Ocala, Lake City, Tally, Valdosta, etc, now.You can always cancel it later.
sponger wrote:Hard to remember the struggles this storm endured. This may get to 5 easily although a strong 3 or weak 4 at landfall would not surprise me. The panic that a 5 will add to tomorrow's mandatory evacs will be substantial. If you are in SFL take a breath and determine your true risk and try not to get caught up in a panic. The traffic jam tomorrow will be from the GA FL line to Palm Beach so if you need to leave, leave tonight or Sunday at midnight. Sitting in traffic for 20 hours is not going to help your nerves.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3752 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:09 pm

Helluva a pressure gradient
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3753 Postby edu2703 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:10 pm

112kt unflagged SFMR
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3754 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:10 pm

25mb drop in 5 hours. That’s some serious rapid intensification
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3755 Postby StruThiO » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3756 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:11 pm

Yeah this thing is about to explode. Scared to see what it will look like tomorrow morning. This is a disaster for the NW Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3757 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:11 pm

No surprise pressure has dropped like a stone since that eye has cleared out. Suspect its got a way to go yet as well to be honest. Could well see a 930s reading sooner rather than later.

Also, fully expect to find winds to support something in the range of 115-125kts as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3758 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:14 pm

edu2703 wrote:112kt unflagged SFMR


Its definately a cat-4 now, should find 120s in the NE quadrant.

Also worth noting both the GFS and CMC were too far north at 00z in their 12z runs earlier for this point...interesting to note even so close in...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3759 Postby wx98 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:14 pm

Eagerly awaiting the next pass from the east side. I agree with others that it’s prob about 120 kt
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3760 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:16 pm

Image

Recon measured eye temp over 20C
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