ATL: DORIAN - Models
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Not that the NAVGEM is great, but it has Dorian turning out to sea east of Grand Bahama.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Though the NW Bahamas are only 75 miles from West Palm it is amazing how many more hurricanes the Bahamas get compared the SE Florida. I feel really bad for them with this hurricane.
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supercane4867
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kthmcc7319
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
got ants? wrote:Can anyone explain to me the modeling that WU is using to have Dorian mark a hard turn, NNW after lanfall? An hour ago they had Dorian leaving land, just after landfall, but now riding up I 95 for 100 miles?
I’ve always thought WU used the official NHC track on their website and app.
Last edited by kthmcc7319 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
hwrf turning at 90 hrs to the wnw
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
supercane4867 wrote:HWRF not done with westward movement. Still heading for FL
HWRF at h90 appears to be heading for Cape? 944 mb
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Frank P wrote:supercane4867 wrote:HWRF not done with westward movement. Still heading for FL
HWRF at h90 appears to be heading for Cape? 944 mb
Didn't Matthew scrape by the Cape in 2016?
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HWRF showing the turn to the north now much earlier. Keep the trends coming.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
supercane4867 wrote:HWRF looks similar to 18z GFS
ICON is the outlier model now perhaps.
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StormPyrate
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
A tad bit further north and HWRF would miss the Bahamas to the north
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SW shear ? setup looks completely different.. odd
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:HWRF showing the turn to the north now much earlier. Keep the trends coming.
Nope, hits Cape Canaveral @102hrs.
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Looks like the Cape catches the west eye wall at h99 as it skirts the FL coast
H102 about half of the eye into the Cape... will it go totally inland? Find out soon?
H102 about half of the eye into the Cape... will it go totally inland? Find out soon?
Last edited by Frank P on Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
beachman80 wrote:Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.
Why wouldn't you be? Who wants a Cat.4 recking havoc on their community.
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StormPyrate
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
beachman80 wrote:Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.
we are observing models, most of which are indicating that is a possibility at the time.
is that what you mean by jumping on the "train?
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:beachman80 wrote:Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.
Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.
Holy crap, no one is in the clear. You’re basing this off of one run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
brock berlin wrote:beachman80 wrote:Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.
Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.
Please don't sound the all clear yet, long way to go.
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