ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4241 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:06 pm

Euro 18z further North.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4242 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:08 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Euro 18z further North.


Can you post approximate latitude/longitudes?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4243 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:08 pm

euro stalled over grand bahamas for 24 hours so far.. lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4244 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:08 pm

supercane4867 wrote:HWRF direct hit on Jacksonville


Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4245 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:euro stalled over grand bahamas for 24 hours so far.. lol


This would be similar to what the HMON showed it appears? Terrible.....just terrible :(
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4246 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Frank P wrote:HWRF h99 to h102 appears to be on a WNW heading


Rare for a storm to be moving towards Florida WNW north of 28N and W of 80W... Model either moving towards a recurve scenerio towards Carolinas/OTS or ridge will be stronger and go west farther south... JMHO

Most likely a just wobble as it never did go very far inland in the end of the run....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4247 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:13 pm

well we can say by to grand bahamas island... euro has it stalled for 38 hours...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4248 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well we can say by to grand bahamas island... euro has it stalled for 38 hours...


This is sickening.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4249 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:15 pm

Euro has Dorian wiping Grand Bahama off the map.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4250 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:15 pm

Frank P wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Frank P wrote:HWRF h99 to h102 appears to be on a WNW heading


Rare for a storm to be moving towards Florida WNW north of 28N and W of 80W... Model either moving towards a recurve scenerio towards Carolinas/OTS or ridge will be stronger and go west farther south... JMHO

Most likely a just wobble as it never did go very far inland in the end of the run....

Basically went NNW after first hitting the Cape. Or west of north perhaps...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4251 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:15 pm

Population of Grand Bahama is over 50K. Someone better finds a way to evacuate them all :roll:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4252 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well we can say by to grand bahamas island... euro has it stalled for 38 hours...

I don’t know if I buy this run, but it is interesting
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4253 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:17 pm

yeah dont sweat it.. only 38 hours parked over Grand bahama.....

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4254 Postby AubreyStorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah dont sweat it.. only 38 hours parked over Grand bahama.....

https://i.ibb.co/QJqDH1L/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png


If possible 38 hours inland... If ... :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4255 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:19 pm

I’m not buying that 18z run, no way that’s sitting there for 38 hours...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4256 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:21 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Population of Grand Bahama is over 50K. Someone better finds a way to evacuate them all :roll:


I hope that there is a few empty cargo ships and cruise ships that can go pick up people, animals and other important things right now or in the next 24 hours. Also hoping that they will have a few Coast Guard and Navy ships on stand by to the North of the Bahamas to be ready to go in as soon as it is all clear. I'm talking not for just Grand Bahama but all the Bahama Islands that will be completely washed away (if this stall of almost 2 days at Cat 4/5 is verified).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4257 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:23 pm

No way it can holds such intensity by sitting there for over 30 hours unless it's on the Gulf Stream. Upwelling would be epic.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4258 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah dont sweat it.. only 38 hours parked over Grand bahama.....

https://i.ibb.co/QJqDH1L/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

Throw this run out! :Can:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4259 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:25 pm

supercane4867 wrote:No way it can holds such intensity by sitting there for over 30 hours unless it's on the Gulf Stream. Upwelling would be epic.


Shallow water in the Bahamas. It’s warm and there’s no deep cool water under it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4260 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:25 pm

HWRF not so crazy now.. :eek:
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