ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Yall best believe those models will shift again

[Ken711]

I’m not buying that 18z run, no way that’s sitting there for 38 hours...

I agree sitting that long without moving seems a bit odd.

[supercane4867]

18z Euro simply has no idea on what the hell is going on at the end

[Ken711]

HWRF not so crazy now..

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue 34m
Note, this pretty much verified.
HWRF did remarkable for short term rapid intensification.
NHC 950 mb at 00Z.

[sma10]

I think we also have to accept that an extended stall of 12 hours or 24 hours OR 38 hours makes movement thereafter a bit unsure, especially considering we'd be then talking about days 4/5 which already has inherent unknowns

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF not so crazy now..

Huh?

[Bocadude85]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Euro simply has no idea on what the hell is going on at the end

Can you post the latest particulars on the 18Z Euro?

[CFLHurricane]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

Better off the coast than on :fingers crossed:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

Or Jeanne....my god no model saw that loopty loop crap 48 hours out

[jlauderdal]

18z Euro simply has no idea on what the hell is going on at the end

Systems stall, the euro could be correct or at least close

[WilmingtonSandbar]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

It reminds me more of Floyd in 1999

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I have my doubts models have a grasp on this 4 days out.

That cone is gonna come back

[Bocadude85]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

It reminds me more of Floyd in 1999

I don’t remember the models showing a stall in the NW Bahamas for Floyd...

[Carolinagirl18]

I’m not buying that 18z run, no way that’s sitting there for 38 hours...

Anything's possible florence sat over us for 3 days last year.

[supercane4867]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

[Weatherboy1]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Correct. There was a front swinging down that was going to grab Floyd and turn him north no matter what. Was only a question of timing and how far west he got before the turn. With Dorian, there is no powerful front. It's more like the steering currents die off at day 3-4, and it's an open question which steering influence will take over. Hence the extended pause showing up on models and/or the big swings from run to run.

[gatorcane]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

[Hammy]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Correct. There was a front swinging down that was going to grab Floyd and turn him north no matter what. Was only a question of timing and how far west he got before the turn. With Dorian, there is no powerful front. It's more like the steering currents die off at day 3-4, and it's an open question which steering influence will take over. Hence the extended pause showing up on models and/or the big swings from run to run.

Is that why there's so little consistency and such a large back and fourth variation

[drezee]

yeah dont sweat it.. only 38 hours parked over Grand bahama.....

https://i.ibb.co/QJqDH1L/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

Off 30mb on strength