ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Big wobble or I see due west now:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Lets see 4 hours of movement, i wouldnt be at all surprised to see the models under estimating this ridge or any other, it happens

[PandaCitrus]

Yup, John Morales is seeing this "due west" and getting a little concerned.

Big wobble or I see due west now:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[supercane4867]

Cloudtops cooling again. Some whites showing up on the west

[Weatherboy1]

I'm watching how far west Dorian is when he crosses 26N. If still south of 26 at 72W and especially 74W? Then that would be a noteworthy "south of modeling" move ...

[PandaCitrus]

Historically, there has never been a major hurricane landfall, let alone a Cat 4/5, north of Ft. Pierce to Jacksonville. So either we are breaking new ground and 150+ years of history, or Dorian will never make landfall in Florida as a major or barrel west into Dade, Broward, Palm Beach as a 4/5.

[Ian2401]

I'm watching how far west Dorian is when he crosses 26N. If still south of 26 at 72W and especially 74W? Then that would be a noteworthy "south of modeling" move ...

will def be south of 26N at 72W unless it radically wobbles or something, doubt itll be south og 26N at 74W but if we are, that changes a lot imo

[jlauderdal]

I like Morales and love Levi and the NHC but there is no research that supports this and they don't say there's any. I have heard this carted aout multiple times in the last 30 years and it's right in actual cases about 50 percent of the time. So flip a coin - you'll have the same odds.

Well said pete..we go through this every season..storms pumping ridges, upwelling supposed to have a big effect, storms that are supposed to wipe cities off the map and rarely do anything close to it

I mean then you get hurricanes like Michael which ramp up beyond what anyone or model thought possible

Intensity is mysterious, once in awhile like tonight the hwrf nails it because once in awhile we see RI...not really a win for the hwrf, just an intense storm that went so hwrf "saw" it coming

[EquusStorm]

Looks only a smidge north of due west to me, maybe completely west staring at the loop. Cloud tops perhaps cooling again too

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1167602758507290624

At landfall, that would leave a mark.

[paintplaye]

Dorian is feeling out the upper-level ridge more now that strong intensification has occurred today. This West/WNW trend could make a big difference, especially if it continues overnight. 00z model runs will be interesting with the much stronger storm.

[gatorcane]

So are we missing forecast points? Distinctive west movement with a very slight north component but really due west.

[FLAloha]

Couple of basic questions.

1. Once the storm becomes a major of this intensity, isn’t it possible for it to start tracking poleward?
2. And also, if it sits over the Bahamas for days as a 4 or 5, is it likely to be able to retain the same degree of strength for that length of time?

[GeneratorPower]

Definitely due west since 00:07 UTC (last full hour)

[supercane4867]

Is the AF plane heading back to home?

[1900hurricane]

119 kt SFMR. Definitely saw that coming based on that previous dropsonde.

010800 2530N 07111W 7523 02152 9623 +152 //// 090124 129 119 037 01
010830 2532N 07111W 7542 02215 9719 +146 //// 093122 126 118 014 01

[sponger]

Dorian is feeling out the upper-level ridge more now that strong intensification has occurred today. This West/WNW trend could make a big difference, especially if it continues overnight. 00z model runs will be interesting with the much stronger storm.

We may well be watching the play out of the GFS and Euro solutions two days ago.. Ending up in the same place but different paths. Feeling the high sooner but also the weakness later. Unfortunately that may put South Florida under the gun. Better for Central and N Florida but would be catastrophic for SFL. Scary to think about evacs goin out tomorrow for Broward and Palm Beach. They may not have a choice if it continues the Westward movement. It may be too close to ignore. We need to see the West continue but these often stair step around the high. We will know a lot more in a few hours.

[Hammy]

AF plane turned around just before arriving so it looks like we're going to go the entire night with no new data once the current mission is over.

[Raebie]

So are we missing forecast points? Distinctive west movement with a very slight north component but really due west.

It's interesting you say that because I've seen no talk of forecast points and I usually do. Maybe because we're so far out?

[michelinj]

Recon with 121kts in the south eyewall. The south! Then 129kts in the North. This is bombing like crazy! 2.19am here and can’t physically stay awake much longer so have to sleep. Who knows what I’ll wake up to!

Happy hunting, James

[ozonepete]

It's 270 due west at least for the last hour on IR.

Is that from NHC or RECON or just your opinion?