ATL: DORIAN - Models

[boca]

Yes the steering currents will collapse and just be drifting north due to weak currents off our coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

[imi.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png[/img]

I hear you loud and clear Gator. For days it looked like a foregone conclusion FL was going to get hit and the only question being which part of FL. Looking at this map it looks like the models did a complete 180 and turn it away from all land. Totally stunning to say the least


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[Ken711]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

[gatorcane]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

[imi.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png[/url]

I hear you loud and clear Gator. For days it looked like a foregone conclusion FL was going to get hit and the only question being which part of FL. Looking at this map it looks like the models did a complete 180 and turn it away from all land. Totally stunning to say the least

Well this just shows how difficult it is to get a major hurricane hit into the US especially the area from Stuart north to GA. Now of course Florida is not out of the woods yet but looking somewhat encouraging. But what will the next 00Z models show, swing back west?

[boulderrr]

I'm confused. Looks to me like that 00z plot shows OFCL staying offshore (and bending NE toward hour 120). The latest NHC forecast doesn't stay offshore. Is this something interim that the NHC has produced, but not using as official?

[arizona_sooner]

Okay I'll add my two cents here... I live in Arizona, but am scheduled to fly from Port-of-Spain in the southern Caribbean to Miami on Saturday evening. We've been worried about possible cancellations but nothing so far. Anyhow, the heat ridge that has been plaguing Phoenix for the last month or so has been contracting and expanding in an E-W direction for awhile now. The local NWS guys have been all over that, calling for "Excessive Heat Warnings" when the ridge positions itself over us (and not expanding east) and we thus get above 112F or so... Anyhow, they have been dead-on forecasting that for the last month - and - for the next few days they forecast the western ridge to expand eastward, letting up of the heat in the desert a bit. So, this ridge may extend far enough east to block Dorian from going too far west, and maybe, just maybe, this is what the models are seeing also. If it expands far enough to the east maybe the damn thing stays offshore. Who knows.

[boca]

I don’t understand if their are no fronts how is this turning north because isn’t a break between 2 highs a trough

[SFLcane]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

https://i.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png

Up up and away...

[supercane4867]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

More like Frances if I have to pick one. Just maybe further east

[mitchell]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks.

Check them out where?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

If these 18z runs of a stall just off the Fla coast verified, it would be absolutely devastating for the NW Bahamas, not to mention 24-30 hours of hurricane force gust on the Florida coast, this really does remind me of Frances in 2004, models did very similar things before finally coming into agreement on a slow wnw motion into the coast

It reminds me more of Floyd in 1999

I don’t remember the models showing a stall in the NW Bahamas for Floyd...

I was more referencing the strengthening and being so sure that it was going into Florida, and then making the turn at the last minute. I wasn't talking about a stall over the Bahamas.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I’m not buying that 18z run, no way that’s sitting there for 38 hours...

Anything's possible florence sat over us for 3 days last year.

Yep. And my city lost 3 dams and a big lake because of Florence.

[NDG]

I will be super happy if latest 0z early models come true but I will be super pissed it made me cancel my St Pete Beach plans this weekend

Edit: But I will not let my guard down until ICON starts showing it staying off of FL

[otowntiger]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

I don’t think it will get as close as Matthew. The next NHC advisory will almost certainly be offshore and I believe the shifts east will continue. Just my opinion. It seems climatology and current Synoptics combined are pointing to a much better track for all of us in Florida. I for one am feeling much better tonight.

[boca]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

I don’t think it will get as close as Matthew. The next NHC advisory will almost certainly be offshore and I believe the shifts east will continue. Just my opinion. It seems climatology and current Synoptics combined are pointing to a much better track for all of us in Florida. I for one am feeling much better tonight.

I agree no swings back just east

[tarheelprogrammer]

The stronger the storm, the more likely it goes north then northeast. That seems to usually be a good way to look at things. That is not always the case. The models are sensing this as well.

[Blown Away]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

https://i.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png

And TVCN goes N of the Bahamas... Might be a total miss... Wow amazing swing...

[Blown Away]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

https://i.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png

Up up and away...

Florida is the hurricane hit capital of the CONUS, but more times than not that "Magic Trap Door" is always in play... Always... This was a reminder, thank goodness...

[storm4u]

Watching up here in New England but think it goes ots

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

https://i.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png

And TVCN goes N of the Bahamas... Might be a total miss... Wow amazing swing...

[AutoPenalti]

Guys note that we are still roughly 72 hours before any sort of landfall, things can change just as quickly as today.