ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

129 kts FL, 119 SFMR

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though some dry air got into the system earlier this afternoon but is mixing it out so another round of rapid intensification may be underway soon

[Hurrilurker]

The consistent symmetry of the eye over the last few hours is remarkable, all that raggedness we saw before is completely gone.

[GeneratorPower]

It's 270 due west at least for the last hour on IR.

Is that from NHC or RECON or just your opinion?

It’s pretty obvious from a longwave IR loop. Just watch the edge of the eye and compare to a straight edge

[supercane4867]

I believe it may hit a ceiling around 125kts tonight. Don't think it can strengthen further without an ERC

[dukeblue219]

Recon with 121kts in the south eyewall. The south! Then 129kts in the North. This is bombing like crazy! 2.19am here and can’t physically stay awake much longer so have to sleep. Who knows what I’ll wake up to!

Happy hunting, James

Those are 10-second flight level winds, for what it's worth, and probably support the current 130mph intensity.

[Jr0d]

My parents live in Cocoa Beach, Brevard county. They knew a mando evavuation was going to happen. They have a plan, the house will be boarded up. It is a concrete block structure with a new roof and about 12' above sea level, 2 blocks from the ocean and across the street from the intracoastal. They have one of the highest and in my opinion strongest houses in the neighborhood.

It is tough to think the house I grew up may be gone in a few days. Can't imagine how they are feeling.

The waiting game for these storms is brutal. Tensions will be high and a lot chaos will happen.

[paintplaye]

Dorian is feeling out the upper-level ridge more now that strong intensification has occurred today. This West/WNW trend could make a big difference, especially if it continues overnight. 00z model runs will be interesting with the much stronger storm.

We may well be watching the play out of the GFS and Euro solutions two days ago.. Ending up in the same place but different paths. Feeling the high sooner but also the weakness later. Unfortunately that may put South Florida under the gun. Better for Central and N Florida but would be catastrophic for SFL. Scary to think about evacs goin out tomorrow for Broward and Palm Beach. They may not have a choice if it continues the Westward movement. It may be too close to ignore. We need to see the West continue but these often stair step around the high. We will know a lot more in a few hours.

At the end of the day, the speed of Dorian will be the key factor for how far West it gets. Once steering breaks down Dorian will slow down quickly and begin to feel out the trough and turn north/northwest. The sooner that happens the better for the U.S. most likely.

[ozonepete]

It's 270 due west at least for the last hour on IR.

Is that from NHC or RECON or just your opinion?

It’s pretty obvious from a longwave IR loop. Just watch the edge of the eye and compare to a straight edge

Lol that's not science. you know about wobble watching right?

[Hurrilurker]

AF plane turned around just before arriving so it looks like we're going to go the entire night with no new data once the current mission is over.

That's a shame, right when it was really getting interesting. We could be missing the bottom. I wonder what happened to make them turn around.

[Snowman67]

Looks like the last few frames it moves ever so slightly north of due west. Will be interesting to see if it is just a wobble or trend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[jasons2k]

Yeah and it just wobbled north...

[GeneratorPower]

Is that from NHC or RECON or just your opinion?

It’s pretty obvious from a longwave IR loop. Just watch the edge of the eye and compare to a straight edge

Lol that's not science.

It’s not an official center fix, bub. But it’s not far off reality either.

[Jr0d]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

Question from an interested bystander: I think I recall that powerful storms "want" to spin north. Is that true, and if so, could it be a factor in this case?

That certainly was not the case for Andrew. Atmospheric dynamics are the major factor, however in the general since hurricanes bring the tropical heat and humid to higher latitudes.

[jlauderdal]

My parents live in Cocoa Beach, Brevard county. They knew a mando evavuation was going to happen. They have a plan, the house will be boarded up. It is a concrete block structure with a new roof and about 12' above sea level, 2 blocks from the ocean and across the street from the intracoastal. They have one of the highest and in my opinion strongest houses in the neighborhood.

It is tough to think the house I grew up may be gone in a few days. Can't imagine how they are feeling.

The waiting game for these storms is brutal. Tensions will be high and a lot chaos will happen.

Keep the faith, model trends are in your favor

[ozonepete]

It’s pretty obvious from a longwave IR loop. Just watch the edge of the eye and compare to a straight edge

Lol that's not science.

It’s not an official center fix, bub. But it’s not far off reality either.

You know what trochoidal movement along the path and wobbles mean, right? You need at least 3 hours of smoothed track.

[aperson]

It’s not an official center fix, bub. But it’s not far off reality either.

do you correct for parallax error when you visually inspect the IR loop?

[jasons2k]

It’s pretty obvious from a longwave IR loop. Just watch the edge of the eye and compare to a straight edge

Lol that's not science.

It’s not an official center fix, bub. But it’s not far off reality either.

Y'all need to cool it. NOW.

[ozonepete]

My parents live in Cocoa Beach, Brevard county. They knew a mando evavuation was going to happen. They have a plan, the house will be boarded up. It is a concrete block structure with a new roof and about 12' above sea level, 2 blocks from the ocean and across the street from the intracoastal. They have one of the highest and in my opinion strongest houses in the neighborhood.

It is tough to think the house I grew up may be gone in a few days. Can't imagine how they are feeling.

The waiting game for these storms is brutal. Tensions will be high and a lot chaos will happen.

Keep the faith, model trends are in your favor

Yeah hang in there pal. You have done al of the right things and sounds like you will get through. Good luck.

[FLAloha]

Attempting to ask this again. Sincere questions from someone who has lurked for many seasons.

Couple of basic questions.

1. Once the storm becomes a major of this intensity, isn’t it possible for it to start tracking poleward?
2. And also, if it sits over the Bahamas for days as a 4 or 5, is it likely to be able to retain the same degree of strength for that length of time?