ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Is it the AF mission that was supposed to be dropping buoys ahead of the storm?

I assume it is this one:

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 30/2330Z,31/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2305A DORIAN
C. 30/2115Z
D. 25.6N 71.4W
E. 30/2300Z TO 31/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

But the mission that is flying oddly took off at 23:04:00Z which would have made that a late take off by almost two hours. And if the one out there now is the buoy one that is really late, where is the other Air Force one that should have already been out to the center?

[Chris90]

In regards to the upwelling, Hurricane Joaquin hung out for an extended period of time in the Bahamas in late September - early October, and he had no problems intensifying while moving decently slow. This is one area where upwelling is not nearly as much of an issue as other areas in the basin. As others have said, the gulf stream is constantly pumping more warm water through there, so a storm can tap into that supply for extended amounts of time. If he does slow to a crawl, I would guess it would be another factor, or combo of factors that would weaken him as opposed to upwelling cool water. Not saying it can't or won't happen, it's just not the first place I would look for weakening.
Also, just a disclaimer, I'm not forecasting weakening in any way or saying that I see any factors that will weaken him any time soon.

[ozonepete]

...

As for the second question, if it moves too slowly for too long a period of time, a hurricane will upwell cold water beneath it. While steering is weak, this is a possibility for Dorian, but I can't say personally how much of a possibility at this time.

It's just occurred to me that the waters around the Bahamas are very shallow. (I think I recall seeing videos of people walking miles into the sea with the water just knee high.) So, I'm wondering if there's any cold water to upwell or if it's all warm.

But super shallow seawater will quickly have it's heat degraded in a severe storm. there might not be cold to upwell but it won't stay hot. I observe this all the time in my area. having said that this storm will not be lacking heat energy even if it does stall for a time in the Bahamas. the water is stupid hot to begin with and there's plenty of deep warm water too. Upwelling is an oversold phenom, especially at peak season. Something else will have to pick on Dorian. As a side note... please tell me it's not just me going bananas awaiting the 11 pm advisory..

Ok, psyclone, but upwelling is an oversold phenom on here, not necessarily by pro mets such as those at NHC. It has brought many a powerful cyclone that stalled down to nothing in just a few days.

[b0tzy29]

If you want to watch an awesome video about Dorian, Levi's video on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ tonight is top notch. He does not rule out any possibility and explains why.

[Blown Away]

INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

If Dorian maintains current forward just N of W speed, he looks like he will pass 72W a little earlier than the 5pm prediction...

[sponger]

About the same longitude of Biscayne Bay. If it gets to 26 it is at Hollywood. Interesting to see how much latitude it gains overnight.

[senorpepr]

Is it the AF mission that was supposed to be dropping buoys ahead of the storm?

I assume it is this one:

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 30/2330Z,31/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2305A DORIAN
C. 30/2115Z
D. 25.6N 71.4W
E. 30/2300Z TO 31/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

But the mission that is flying oddly took off at 23:04:00Z which would have made that a late take off by almost two hours. And if the one out there now is the buoy one that is really late, where is the other Air Force one that should have already been out to the center?

From what I understand, the current AF mission out there is Mission 20 (Tail 307), which was supposed to be the buoy drops from Mission 19. The original sortie had to abort and return to base. I believe TEAL 77 picked up the buoy tasking from TEAL 79. In short, currently, the buoy drop is happening in lieu of the fix mission originally scheduled to depart at 2115Z. We shall see.

[jasons2k]

TPW showing the 25N flow suddenly shifts from east to west into the gulf. it should be turning west soon.. follow up with that above
you can also see the low becoming more defined in the straights. Dorian and that low may interact and keep Dorian more westerly.

That low in the straits almost seems to be dragging Dorian more to the west. Look at the size difference between the two features. These small, compact systems like Dorian can be very sensitive to larger-scale atmospheric features.

[psyclone]

This board is sooo much more quieter than it would be if Dorian was making a beeline for Florida......What a difference 24 hours makes in terms of the amount of board posts....

People here are preparing and getting supplies. you can cut the tension with a knife even on my side of the state

[Aric Dunn]

Is it the AF mission that was supposed to be dropping buoys ahead of the storm?

I assume it is this one:

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 30/2330Z,31/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2305A DORIAN
C. 30/2115Z
D. 25.6N 71.4W
E. 30/2300Z TO 31/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

But the mission that is flying oddly took off at 23:04:00Z which would have made that a late take off by almost two hours. And if the one out there now is the buoy one that is really late, where is the other Air Force one that should have already been out to the center?

From what I understand, the current AF mission out there is Mission 20 (Tail 307), which was supposed to be the buoy drops from Mission 19. The original sortie had to abort and return to base. I believe TEAL 77 picked up the buoy tasking from TEAL 79. In short, currently, the buoy drop is happening in lieu of the fix mission originally scheduled to depart at 2115Z. We shall see.

hey look who it is !!!!

hello !


anyway....

is this some sort of half low level invest and half surrounding environment sampling?

[ozonepete]

Is it the AF mission that was supposed to be dropping buoys ahead of the storm?

I assume it is this one:

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 30/2330Z,31/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2305A DORIAN
C. 30/2115Z
D. 25.6N 71.4W
E. 30/2300Z TO 31/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

But the mission that is flying oddly took off at 23:04:00Z which would have made that a late take off by almost two hours. And if the one out there now is the buoy one that is really late, where is the other Air Force one that should have already been out to the center?

From what I understand, the current AF mission out there is Mission 20 (Tail 307), which was supposed to be the buoy drops from Mission 19. The original sortie had to abort and return to base. I believe TEAL 77 picked up the buoy tasking from TEAL 79. In short, currently, the buoy drop is happening in lieu of the fix mission originally scheduled to depart at 2115Z. We shall see.

Hey senorpepr! Long time no see.

[Hurricaneman]

TPW showing the 25N flow suddenly shifts from east to west into the gulf. it should be turning west soon.. follow up with that above
you can also see the low becoming more defined in the straights. Dorian and that low may interact and keep Dorian more westerly.

That low in the straits almost seems to be dragging Dorian more to the west. Look at the size difference between the two features. These small, compact systems like Dorian can be very sensitive to larger-scale atmospheric features.

The gulf low might break down the ridge to the west of Dorian but not to the north, looks like most of the models don’t account for this possibility

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/YaZaKqP.gif

INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

If Dorian maintains current forward just N of W speed, he looks like he will pass 72W a little earlier than the 5pm prediction...

Starting to point to WSW movement with his clouds.

[MGC]

Looks like some more dry air. Clouds have warmed on western side of circulation. Still looks to be moving WNW.....MGC

[Hammy]

This board is sooo much more quieter than it would be if Dorian was making a beeline for Florida......What a difference 24 hours makes in terms of the amount of board posts....

No recon, farthest point form land (so no radar), Friday night (some people might be out or with family) and probably a lot of people might be going to bed early to begin preparations since they have a whole weekend to do it, if they aren't in the process of evacuating.

[SunnyThoughts]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER...
...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS...

[FLAloha]

Attempting to ask this again. Sincere questions from someone who has lurked for many seasons.

With regards to the first question, what you're probably thinking of is beta drift, which is indeed a real thing. In a purely unidirectional steering regime, a stronger circulation will tend to bend more poleward than a weaker circulation in the same regime. However, the current steering regime is not that straightforwards, with a deep layer ridge forcing a stronger system more westwards in the near term before things become more nebulous with multiple entities exerting only weak influences. If a sufficient break in ridging develops, it may try to take that route out, but it is very unclear whether that will transpire or not with the information we have now.

As for the second question, if it moves too slowly for too long a period of time, a hurricane will upwell cold water beneath it. While steering is weak, this is a possibility for Dorian, but I can't say personally how much of a possibility at this time.

It also should be noted that upwelling in the Gulf stream is not nearly as significant as the warm Gulf stream water will replenish itself.

Thanks, everybody.

[Jr0d]

About the same longitude of Biscayne Bay. If it gets to 26 it is at Hollywood. Interesting to see how much latitude it gains overnight.

Or looses.

It may take a WSW 'jog'

[HurricaneEnzo]

Western side looking a little ragged on IR. A little bit of dry air maybe or just going through structural changes? I don't expect it to cause any issues probably mix it out quickly.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like some more dry air. Clouds have warmed on western side of circulation. Still looks to be moving WNW.....MGC

Actually looks like the start of an ERC