ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER... ...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 30
Location: 25.5°N 71.4°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[HDGator]

This board is sooo much more quieter than it would be if Dorian was making a beeline for Florida......What a difference 24 hours makes in terms of the amount of board posts....

People here are preparing and getting supplies. you can cut the tension with a knife even on my side of the state

Yeah that nails it on the head for most people in the path. Today was the day to move ahead of the panic considering the best guidance we have.
I just spent the day fetching the daughter from UCF.
Drive, find gas, and get daughter moving.
Stage daughter's car in a garage interior between 2nd and 3rd floor on interior ramp and get textbooks she hasn't bought yet, oh, there's a long line at the bookstore - surprise, surprise.
Get daughter packing. Clean the fridge completely and save a quarter of the food in the cooler I brought with icepaks frozen last night. Throw away the rest since we're looking at a week minimum and I don't want to clean a smelly fridge.
Load up trying to beat the afternoon thunderstorms - just barely, whew!
Drive, look for gas, no gas there, none there, whew! fill-up there.
Get home and mom is happy!
What a day!

There were a LOT of people moving today with intense purpose. It's nice to see this but it stinks to be in this situation.

Now I can come back to reading/posting just in time for the model wars preceding the wobble wars.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the current recon it looks like it was going to be a low level mission but became an upper air sampling mission

[psyclone]

The 11 pm advisory has yielded a substantial reduction in all wind probs in my area. This is even better than I was expecting.

[senorpepr]

hey look who it is !!!!

hello !


anyway....

is this some sort of half low level invest and half surrounding environment sampling?

Hey there!

I wouldn't rule out a little environmental sampling, considering the drops at that latitude. I believe the earlier G-IV flight was canceled.

[Blown Away]

Appears to now be moving almost due west... Let's see how far and fast west he goes... I predict the 00z GFS will be slightly west of 18z at the start...

[otowntiger]

The NHC in their 11:00 advisory sound more confident in their 3/4 day forecast than the last couple of ones. They have been saying that it was a low confidence forecast now they sound more confident. Could just be the difference in writing styles by the different forecasters on duty.

[Aric Dunn]

hey look who it is !!!!

hello !


anyway....

is this some sort of half low level invest and half surrounding environment sampling?

Hey there!

I wouldn't rule out a little environmental sampling, considering the drops at that latitude. I believe the earlier G-IV flight was canceled.

yeah everyone was bummed about the G-IV flight. but we will take any and all data lol

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/SqUXIkT.gif
Appears to now be moving almost due west... Let's see how far and fast west he goes... I predict the 00z GFS will be slightly west of 18z at the start...

yeah it is heading west now.. and its 24 hours earlier than the Euro. so if this continues long enough then it will have some impact.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 0, 253N, 710W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 80, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 310, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 105,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 0, 253N, 710W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 310, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 105,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 0, 253N, 710W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 310, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 105,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 3, 255N, 714W, 120, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 80, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, DPB, 300, 9, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 120,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 3, 255N, 714W, 120, 948, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, DPB, 300, 9, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 120,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 3, 255N, 714W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 145, 0, , 0, DPB, 300, 9, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 60, 120,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 12, 259N, 728W, 130, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 80, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 9,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 12, 259N, 728W, 130, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 9,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 12, 259N, 728W, 130, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 9,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 24, 263N, 745W, 130, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 90, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 8,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 24, 263N, 745W, 130, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 8,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 24, 263N, 745W, 130, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 0, 0, 0, 160, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 8,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 36, 266N, 760W, 125, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 90, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 7,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 36, 266N, 760W, 125, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 7,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 36, 266N, 760W, 125, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 285, 7,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 48, 268N, 773W, 125, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 70, 90, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 6,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 48, 268N, 773W, 125, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 6,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 48, 268N, 773W, 125, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 150, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 6,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 786W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 70, 80, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 3,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 786W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 3,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 96, 283N, 805W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, DPB, 310, 5,
AL, 05, 2019083100, 03, OFCL, 120, 308N, 812W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 345, 6,

120kts

Where do you pull this data?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/al052019.fst

[Ian2401]

https://i.imgur.com/SqUXIkT.gif
Appears to now be moving almost due west... Let's see how far and fast west he goes... I predict the 00z GFS will be slightly west of 18z at the start...

yeah it is heading west now.. and its 24 hours earlier than the Euro. so if this continues long enough then it will have some impact.

gonna cross 72W soon, prob within the next hour

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/SqUXIkT.gif
Appears to now be moving almost due west... Let's see how far and fast west he goes... I predict the 00z GFS will be slightly west of 18z at the start...

yeah it is heading west now.. and its 24 hours earlier than the Euro. so if this continues long enough then it will have some impact.

Would that push the turn (and possible land impacts) further west

[NDG]

Did they sampled the atmosphere north of Dorian today? To me the ridge looks stronger than what the models were showing earlier today. Very important how strong the Bermuda ridge is, any little more strength could push Dorian further west before stalling.

[Blown Away]

11pm: NHC disco says Dorian moving WNW or 300 degrees at 9 knots... Looks like closer to 270 to me?


5pm: NHC had Dorian passing 72W at 0600z... Appears that will happen a little sooner...


Just my observations...

[MetroMike]

This went straight from Very interesting to somewhat "meh" all for the good in this case I suppose.

[Ian2401]

This went straight from Very interesting to somewhat "meh" all for the good in this case I suppose.

still very interesting

[CrazyC83]

What we really need is a G-IV upper level mission north of Dorian. That will help a lot right now.

[Hurricaneman]

Did they sampled the atmosphere north of Dorian today? To me the ridge looks stronger than what the models were showing earlier today. Very important how strong the Bermuda ridge is, any little more strength could push Dorian further west before stalling.

https://i.imgur.com/PaYwXVl.gif

If that’s the case where north of Dorian wasn’t sampled then all the models may not be accurate

Plus when they did a full sample of the atmosphere around Dorian the models went west

[La Sirena]

https://i.imgur.com/1AygPiM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/RaEaA66.jpg


11pm: NHC disco says Dorian moving WNW or 300 degrees at 9 knots... Looks like closer to 270 to me?


5pm: NHC had Dorian passing 72W at 0600z... Appears that will happen a little sooner...


Just my observations...

I’ve been watching this westerly movement and I wasn’t sure if it was actually happening or it was my eyes after a full day on this board lol.

[Ubuntwo]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Based on a couple model run cycles?