ATL: DORIAN - Models

[emeraldislenc]

So the threat to North Carolina has gone up a lot or a little?

[ava_ati]

It's definitely getting hard to ignore the eastward trends on the models from the past day. The Euro, GFS, and Ukmet are all east and 9 times out of 10 when that happens there's a decent chance they're correct. I do want to see how Dorian acts these next 12-18 hours and how far north he gets before I totally buy into this solution. That said, all of Florida should still be preparing for impacts until Dorian is north of you.

If I had a dollar for everytime a storm's track changed after it was supposed to turn north... but like you are saying usually there is one main model that will say "not so fast"... still a long ways out. Plenty of changes left for the track, let's just hope those changes keep going right.

[Meteorcane]

If you go look in the Discussion thread there are a lot of trained eyes that agree it’s heading due west...

I just put a rule on it. It is moving slightly north of due west. And like I said, many of the models had predicted this so this is nothing new.

You really are not going to be able to tell with one single loop. Storms of this intensity wobble quite a bit...as much as a north component you might see now could just as easily be a wobble south in an hour. You need several hours of frames to determine direction.

It is moving about 290 based on the quick calculation I just did (maybe slightly more or less depending on where I placed the center and some parallax from the GOES data)

[Blinhart]

What part of the Carolinas does it hit?

We are not fully sure of some areas that could be affected.

We aren't sure of where it is going to be in 12 hours, so there is no way to even predict anything in the Carolinas in a week.

[Blinhart]

I just put a rule on it. It is moving slightly north of due west. And like I said, many of the models had predicted this so this is nothing new.

You really are not going to be able to tell with one single loop. Storms of this intensity wobble quite a bit...as much as a north component you might see now could just as easily be a wobble south in an hour. You need several hours of frames to determine direction.

It is moving about 290 based on the quick calculation I just did (maybe slightly more or less depending on where I placed the center and some parallax from the GOES data)

How many hours did you do your calculation on???

In the past 3-6 hours it definitely looks a lot closer to around 272.5-280.

[Meteorcane]

How many hours did you do your calculation on???

In the past 3-6 hours it definitely looks a lot closer to around 272.5-280.

I only did the past hour and a half (since the 03Z NHC advisory point).

[bigGbear]

0Z CMC shows impacts in both Carolinas and Virginia

[Blinhart]

How many hours did you do your calculation on???

In the past 3-6 hours it definitely looks a lot closer to around 272.5-280.

I only did the past hour and a half (since the 03Z NHC advisory point).

If I remember correctly you really can't do only 1.5 hours of movement because these things do not move in a straight line, you have to take at least 3 hours if not closer to 8 hours to get a good heading. With 1.5 hours you get one small wobble of a couple miles can change the heading big time.

[jasons2k]

I’m just amazed that this morning’s email from Jeff Lindner basically said there was a growing consensus on Palm Beach County.

What a difference a few hours can make.

And like I have said, we have a long ways to go with Dorian and there will be even more changes.

[Ian2401]

any chances it windshield wipers back tomorrow? trying to figure out what to expect in wellington lol

[Bocadude85]

So the 0z HMON hits Abaco from the west and then has another landfall from the east, terrible for them.

[HDGator]

any chances it windshield wipers back tomorrow? trying to figure out what to expect in wellington lol

Well, we went from 'growing consensus' in the models at dawn today. After a day of sweat, effort and money spent, we go to 'all clear' and the 'trend is our friend' by the models tonight.
Meanwhile the NHC trys to hold a steady rudder in between. At this point, we can only trust their judgement given the given the uncertainty only a few days out.
What will morning bring?

[AtlanticWind]

Was a pretty big model change today, and it seemed odd after the gulfstream data last night
seemed to move models more west. Wonder what the data was that did the 180 today.

[AdamFirst]

Both the HWRF and HMON hit the brakes at Abaco and go pretty much north from there...such an extreme change in all these models from such a short time ago

[Ritzcraker]

Was a pretty big model change today, and it seemed odd after the gulfstream data last night
seemed to move models more west. Wonder what the data was that did the 180 today.

The lack of sampling to the North of Dorian is probably what did it.

[AtlanticWind]

I expect the Euro to be in line with the other models tonight, I will probably get shocked and it will shift west.

Really was a strange day ,everyone on edge here in S Florida and then drastic change in the models.
Relief and a little shock.

[cdavis6287]

Euro runs at 0145???Correct

[AtlanticWind]

Euro runs at 0145???Correct

Correctomundo

[Jr0d]

It looks like almost all the models slow or stall Dorian near Abaco. While the apparent fastvWest motion may just be a jog, that is in my opinion an important cross road point for Dorian turning north or continuing toward Florida.

I will see if the wipers move left or if this right shift is closer to verifying when I wake up.

[StPeteMike]

Heading to bed to maybe be surprised when I wake.