ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to imagine anything New with the Euro tonight as I imagine it has the same data as the other models

If the models were to start to shift back west , I would expect that with the 12z on saturday

[Aric Dunn]

Euro a little faster and south of 18z/12z and heading west instead of wnw/nw

however average motion from now till 48 hours is wnw.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro is stalling again at 60 and even further east than earlier runs. Better chance for ots this run but don't know outcome yet.

[frank92171]

Euro runs at 0145???Correct

Correctomundo

Is that eastern or central time.


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[SoupBone]

Euro a little faster and south of 18z/12z and heading west instead of wnw/nw

however average motion from now till 48 hours is wnw.

WSW dip at 72 hours. EDIT: Closer look, maybe not.

[NFLnut]

Euro runs at 0145???Correct

Correctomundo

Is that eastern or central time.

Eastern. Running now.

[LarryWx]

72 hr Euro tells me to bet on track east of 12Z as of now/OTS?

[Tailspin]

00z Ukmet
https://imgur.com/doqut8v
shore line hugger.

[frank92171]

Correctomundo

Is that eastern or central time.

Eastern. Running now.

Thanks


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[catskillfire51]

GFS made the turn at about 85HR so the next plot from the EURO should show it if it is going to

[Aric Dunn]

recurving looks completely out to sea.

[HDGator]

GFS made the turn at about 85HR so the next plot from the EURO should show it if it is going to

It's definitely showing a turn at 72-78HR.... we'll see how it plays out.

[tolakram]

Early turn just like the GFS.

[toad strangler]

Four days out, still so much time. The past 12 hours have been encouraging if you live in FL but so much real estate left. Tough forecast.

[tolakram]

[smithtim]

00z Ukmet
https://imgur.com/doqut8v
shore line hugger.

Thanks for sharing!!!

What's with that little jog west right after it passes north of Brevard county- cape Kennedy space center area? Doesn't make sense if he's already turned poleward what would turn him west then right after turn him back north almost north east... what could the model be picking up on with that? Only thing I can think is perhaps due to reduction in storm category - loss strength & inner structure angular momentum - so something that wasn't abel to steer when big all of sudden comes back into play and can steer??? But it doesn't look there like the storm is dying out then???

[tolakram]

Right now I don't see it being able to miss the Carolinas. This is going to be very stressful for a few days.

At least it's not sitting over the Bahamas for days.

[Meteorcane]

Right now I don't see it being able to miss the Carolinas. This is going to be very stressful for a few days.

At least it's not sitting over the Bahamas for days.

A lot (for the Carolinas) will come down to how progressive/amplified (which tend to be inversely correlated) the mid-week shortwave is. If it is quick enough it can give this thing enough of an easterly component to maybe make it to OTS, otherwise the Carolinas will get hit it seems.

I should add that future shortwave is the closed low currently off the Pacific Coast (which ultimately phases with a northern system coming from Alaska).

[LarryWx]

May lf at Wilmington

[catskillfire51]

Right now I don't see it being able to miss the Carolinas. This is going to be very stressful for a few days.

At least it's not sitting over the Bahamas for days.

Does that Low seem to be moving abnormally fast, it seems to make it from 100W to 85W in just 24 hours.