ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

Dorian appears to be moving West much faster than the NHC 11pm track guidance.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-48-0-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

Based on GOES_East IR he's crossing 72W at or just before at 05:46UTC.

The 11pm NHC guidance had the following forecast track:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

Based on this, Dorian should have crossed 72W at about 06:50UTC.
That looks to be about an hour ahead of schedule. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
What implications does this have?

Basically the thinking is the faster it moves the further west it gets before it begins to turn north and quasi-stall as the subtropical ridge shifts from overhead to slightly east in response to a shortwave over the eastern US. It is moving slightly faster than the NHC forecast right now, but at this point it would have to go even faster and maintain this faster-than expected speed for some time for it to have significant impacts to anyone other than perhaps those in the northeast Bahamas.

Short-term fluctuations in speed or wobbles in direction are very significant when a storm is very close to the coast, they are less significant (unless they become a long term trend) when it is further out. That being said there still is a possibility this could get very close to the Florida coast in which case you could argue that every mile is important if you buy that solution (which is the official NHC forecast at this point)

[cdavis6287]

@Ozonepete Thank you. I appreciate what you do and the unrecognized work you do, needless to say everyone in your profession does. Not an easy job telling people the cold hard facts sometimes. Yet you Mets do, and even though you are away from your families and working around the clock, always are optomistic and have a concern for everyone you are forecasting too.
You all are awesome and keep doing the great work you do!
I think everyone on this post should give an enomous amount of gratitude to these people and remember, while they are on TV or behind the scenes trying to predict the latest forecast, they have lives, they have kids and a spouse scared and missing them.

PS all. Sorry for the edits. My phone doesnt do well outside in humidity typing lol

[ozonepete]

@Ozonepete Thank you. I appreciate what you do and the unrecognized work you do, needless to say everyone in your profession does. Not an easy job telling people the cold hard facts sometimes. Yet you Mets do, and even though you are away from your families and working around the clock, always are optomistic and have a concern for everyone you are forecasting to.
You all are awesome and keep doing the great work you do!
I think everyone on this post should give a crdit of grattitude to these people and remember, while they are on TV or behind the scenes tryung to predict the latest forecast, they have lives, they have kids and spouse scared and missing them.

Thanks man. We here at S2K are especially in awe of the first responders like you. There is no way to thank all of you enough.

Now we S2K guys work from remote sites and many times we are out of the danger zone and still with our loved ones so many of us don't have the same really tough conditions a lot of you guys do. But while a lot of the guys on here wouldn't admit to it, they do spend a LOT of time during these emergencies keeping you guys informed, especially when you just want to know what the hell the TV mets and local authorities are talking about or where to go for help. And we also have contact guys who go right out into the storms to report back to us but we watch out for them from here of course to help keep them out of danger. And I think they would all admit that during these really acute emergncies we get so involved that we lose a lot of sleep and our families don't get much time with us. But we love what we do and it is very cool that you would recognize we are trying to help make it easier for you. But you are the guys who rock. Stay safe during this one - it's a big deal.

[Hurrilurker]

The eye was looking a bit ragged for a few hours but it looks like it just cleared out and regained symmetry. Also eye nearly completely wrapped with colder cloud tops than previously, it may be strengthening again. The eye has gotten considerably larger though.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT28 KNES 310614
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 31/0601Z

C. 25.7N

D. 72.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B RING AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
E#=5.0 AND +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT=6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[HDGator]

Dorian's IR presentation on satellite has grown quite impressive. It looks very ominous now.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-48-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

Long IR loop.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=8052&y=5650

[AtlanticWind]

When is the next recon?

[1900hurricane]

It's still a bit from width requirements, but the B ring is clearly thickening.

[Bad_Hurricane]

When is the next recon?

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167663417601212417

[ozonepete]

This just won't stop. Look at that clear perfectly round eye and the colder cloud tops (in whites) starting to develop in the eyewall. And the really round symmetric CDO. This is scary.

[Yellow Evan]

This now has the colder cloud tops I’ve been looking for a while. Recon may find a Cat 5 if this holds up.

[LarryWx]

Just doing interpolations (2 AM is 1/3 of time from 11 PM til 8 AM), it actually has been moving slightly faster west than projected. So, got to still watch/FL is far from out of the woods. That could easily just be due to a wobble.

[hurricaneCW]

Dorian is very likely 150-155mph right now and getting better and better each frame. A potential nightmare for the NW Bahamas.

[Hurrilurker]

This now has the colder cloud tops I’ve been looking for a while. Recon may find a Cat 5 if this holds up.

If it makes it there. I fear they may be missing Cat-5 intensity in the next few hours but I don't think they're going to have a plane in there.

[hurricaneCW]

Just doing interpolations (2 AM is 1/3 of time from 11 PM til 8 AM), it actually has been moving slightly faster than projected. So, got to still watch/FL is far from out of the woods.

Maybe though I think this would put the Carolinas more in danger now that models have embraced the offshore Florida track. Floyd comes to mind.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haven't posted here in a while... I'm quite worried about my family and friends clustered around Vero Beach and St. Lucie who have not experienced a powerful hurricane directly in a while (not counting Matthew), and a gas shortage as a result of people filling up their tanks sounds concerning as well aside from the storm itself. Hope everything goes well. Stay safe everyone

[Hurrilurker]

Incredible satellite presentation, I just wish it was daytime so we could get the high res visibles.

[KWT]

Just doing interpolations (2 AM is 1/3 of time from 11 PM til 8 AM), it actually has been moving slightly faster than projected. So, got to still watch/FL is far from out of the woods. That could easily just be due to a wobble.

Yeah it does seem that way, going to be important to see how much latitude it gets today. I wouldn't be shocked if it gains less than expected, that is a pretty typical thing for westward hurricanes to do. Very important for the Bahamas in particular, regardless of when the turn happens.

It really is looking impressive right now though, wouldn't be at all surprised if its a high end 4 at the moment.

[HDGator]

This just won't stop. Look at that clear perfectly round eye and the colder cloud tops (in whites) starting to develop in the eyewall. And the really round symmetric CDO. This is scary.

https://i.imgur.com/3mLbssU.jpg

I wish we could see that eye on visible. I have to think it's quite amazing.