ATL: DORIAN - Models

[LarryWx]

May lf at Wilmington

Yep at 138

[LarryWx]

May lf at Wilmington

Yep at 138

Correction. Long Beach LF at 138

[tolakram]

[catskillfire51]

May lf at Wilmington

Yep at 138

Correction. Long Beach LF at 138

Which site do you use? weather.us for me is still stuck at 51hr

[LarryWx]

Yep at 138

Correction. Long Beach LF at 138

Which site do you use? weather.us for me is still stuck at 51hr

pay

[toad strangler]

Coast scraping recurve. The toughest animal to forecast as 25 to 50 miles either way multiple days out mean everything.

[LarryWx]

Coast scraping recurve. The toughest animal to forecast as 25 to 50 miles either way multiple days out mean everything.

Key is making sure he doesn't speed up over next 48 hours before the expected stall.

[catskillfire51]

Correction. Long Beach LF at 138

Which site do you use? weather.us for me is still stuck at 51hr

pay

Is it one anyone can pay because I pay for weather.us and it isn't as fast at updating

[tolakram]

[Vdogg]

So the threat to North Carolina has gone up a lot or a little?

A lot for now. GFS and Euro hammer Eastern NC and SEVA. Gonna give it a few more runs though before I buy into this. Friday is a long way away.

[tolakram]

This hits the outer banks at hour 150 on the weathermodels.com high rez.

[tolakram]

Best I can tell the eye passes over Southport and then definitely over Morehead City , so this is very very close.

[NFLnut]

00z Ukmet
https://imgur.com/doqut8v
shore line hugger.

What's with that little jog west right after it passes north of Brevard county- cape Kennedy space center area? Doesn't make sense if he's already turned poleward

I noticed that too and wondered the same thing. Has to be an error, No way it would make a quick leftward jog and back. Otherwise, the UKe would now be completely off the coast, which is quite a change from what they were doing 36 hours ago.

[cdavis6287]

Good scenario for Florida. Here in Port Saint Lucie, almost, and I repeat ALMOST a sigh of relief!
Do not let your guards down.
At the moment I feel spared, but God bless the people in the Bahamas!

[hurricaneCW]

Right now I don't see it being able to miss the Carolinas. This is going to be very stressful for a few days.

At least it's not sitting over the Bahamas for days.

Models often overdo the sharpness of the curve and it's got a far west starting point making it very difficult to avoid clipping eastern NC.

On the other hand hurricanes have a tendency to avoid land due to friction, it's like they know moving ashore will kill them.

[AtlanticWind]

I think we might have reached the end of the models trending east, I would expect
them to stay the same or trend slightly back west.

[Tailspin]

00z Ukmet
https://imgur.com/doqut8v
shore line hugger.

Thanks for sharing!!!

What's with that little jog west right after it passes north of Brevard county- cape Kennedy space center area? Doesn't make sense if he's already turned poleward what would turn him west then right after turn him back north almost north east... what could the model be picking up on with that? Only thing I can think is perhaps due to reduction in storm category - loss strength & inner structure angular momentum - so something that wasn't abel to steer when big all of sudden comes back into play and can steer??? But it doesn't look there like the storm is dying out then???

Iikely trochoidal wobbling.

While i'm @ it heres the ooz hurricane model run. Concentric eyewall
https://imgur.com/WKH6cVe

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: mean actually SW vs 18Z at 138 though still many ots. Will keep watching how fast it gains longitude next 2 days. Right now moving 13 mph last 4 hours vs 10 forecasted.

[HDGator]

0Z EPS: mean actually SW vs 18Z at 138 though still many ots. Will keep watching how fast it gains longitude next 2 days. Right now moving 13 mph last 4 hours vs 10 forecasted.

He's definitely moving faster than forecast guidance. I keep checking it and he's moving faster to the west than forecast; but he's still gaining latitude with stair steps. It will be interesting to see whether this affects the model movement to the east on the turn location.

[KWT]

0Z EPS: mean actually SW vs 18Z at 138 though still many ots. Will keep watching how fast it gains longitude next 2 days. Right now moving 13 mph last 4 hours vs 10 forecasted.

Yeah, as I said in the other thread, Dorian's 08z position is near where HWRF forecasted it to be at 12z. This may make a HUGE difference for places like Freeport down the line I fear.