ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

The 06Z EURO is interesting.... it literally wobbles it W/SW/N/S/W between 42 and 84 hours - that's like 2 days - It's also a little bit S and W of the 00Z Euro (which takes is slightly N of Grand Bahama island) and the 06Z Euro Stalls it South of the Island.

Whatever happens during that stall will be critical - I still think a lot can change.

[NDG]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

[hohnywx]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

Are there any missions scheduled to do this?

[chris_fit]

To add to the 06Z EURO run....

It's much slower. On the 00Z it was already north of Cape Canervarl. On the 06Z, while it does make the turn in the last few hours to the N (further W I might add) - it's only around Jupiter's latitude. I think that in itself is about a 100 mile change at hour 90.

[caneman]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

Agree. I just said the same thing a few posts ago and seems to be really pushing down. I could see a SSW dip occurring soon. Seems to have far more influence than the low beneath it

[Ian2401]

To add to the 06Z EURO run....

It's much slower. On the 00Z it was already north of Cape Canervarl. On the 06Z, while it does make the turn in the last few hours to the N (further W I might add) - it's only around Jupiter's latitude. I think that in itself is about a 100 mile change at hour 90.

can you send a picture?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Witg the exception of UKMET

I like the trend. But UKMET is a good model and it could prove correct here

[caneman]

Watch the water vapor folks, it appears the high is really pushing further West and down on the system. I can easily see thus ending up more west.

[chris_fit]

To add to the 06Z EURO run....

It's much slower. On the 00Z it was already north of Cape Canervarl. On the 06Z, while it does make the turn in the last few hours to the N (further W I might add) - it's only around Jupiter's latitude. I think that in itself is about a 100 mile change at hour 90.

can you send a picture?

I cannot it's a paid site. Correction though, it's ALMOST at Cape Canaveral Lat at 96 hours on the 00Z - I had it set to 102 hours previously. Still -- I hope this will not be a trend with the 12Z

[SFLcane]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

Hey NDG, well not based on the latest models they are in pretty good agreement now on a turn north before Florida. Now what I am watching is the extent of those TS winds and if they will brush or move onshore FL depending if Dorian continues to grow.

[caneman]

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

Hey NDG, well not based on the latest models they are in pretty good agreement now on a turn north before Florida. Now what I am watching is the extent of those TS winds and if they will brush or move onshore FL depending if Dorian continues to grow.

The situation is more fluid than the last models. Will be interesting to see if next model runs pick up on this

[chris_fit]

Anyone have a link to that site where can you compare the previous track of a storm (Dorian in this case) Compared to the official track and models?

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1167776920072794114

[seahawkjd]

To add to the 06Z EURO run....

It's much slower. On the 00Z it was already north of Cape Canervarl. On the 06Z, while it does make the turn in the last few hours to the N (further W I might add) - it's only around Jupiter's latitude. I think that in itself is about a 100 mile change at hour 90.

can you send a picture?

I cannot it's a paid site. Correction though, it's ALMOST at Cape Canaveral Lat at 96 hours on the 00Z - I had it set to 102 hours previously. Still -- I hope this will not be a trend with the 12Z

So is it slow enough that it curves away from the SE or does it still come up towards the Carolinas?

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167776406929100800

[chris_fit]

can you send a picture?

I cannot it's a paid site. Correction though, it's ALMOST at Cape Canaveral Lat at 96 hours on the 00Z - I had it set to 102 hours previously. Still -- I hope this will not be a trend with the 12Z

So is it slow enough that it curves away from the SE or does it still come up towards the Carolinas?

The 06Z and 18Z EURO only goes out to 90 hours. So I can only tell you it's offshore at Juipter's latitude around then, about 27N 79W

[hohnywx]

https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1167776920072794114

That certainly appears to be some funky movement south of Grand Bahama

[chris_fit]

Seems lilke many are posting images on twitter... so here we go... If I get a slap on the wrist I won't do it again

06Z EURO

[HurricaneFrances04]

Doesn't look good for the Northwest Bahamas. I was hoping the north of the Bahamas solution shown by some of the models would pan out last night, but the Euro shows a W/WNW track, which appears to be occurring at the moment.

[GeneratorPower]

Seems lilke many are posting images on twitter... so here we go... If I get a slap on the wrist I won't do it again

06Z EURO

https://i.imgur.com/u73opIm.png

Wow that’s quite a stall.