ATL: DORIAN - Models

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167790679763951618

[northjaxpro]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.

We need the atmosphere sampled to the north of Dorian, ridging looks a little stronger than what the models showed last night.

[chris_fit]

Many of the 06Z EPS bend back W at the end...

Question... If the stall occurs for long enough, is there another ridge or anything that can build in and bend it back W? Or even a loop like Jeanne if it were to turn N, NE, and then loops around?

[Ntxw]

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[PandaCitrus]

The 6z western more southern motion makes a lot of sense considering Dorian is going due west currently at 12mph. The problematic portion is the stall and turn. South Florida better hope the stall happens over the Bahamas and not Ft. Lauderdale.

Only slight timing errors could cause this and Dorian still chugging it at 12mph slightly faster than NHC forecast yesterday.

[ronjon]

Many of the 06Z EPS bend back W at the end...

Question... If the stall occurs for long enough, is there another ridge or anything that can build in and bend it back W? Or even a loop like Jeanne if it were to turn N, NE, and then loops around?

You look at all the tracks west of the ensemble mean (thick black line) they all impact Florida from the Cape southward. Might suggest Atlantic ridge south of Bermuda getting stronger exerting more of a push to the NW after the first shortwave over New England passes by.

[underthwx]

The weather channel just showed the "official NHC forecast" and not for nothing, but the 00Z Euro at 72 hours, shows the storm significantly further south than the official NHC track, in my opinion.

I remember one of the older retired now weather man on an Orlando station 15-20 yrs ago said that when hurricanes get to be a CAT 4 with extremely low pressures, that they can and sometimes do in a sense create their own environment and don't always turn as the weather maps say they should. I'll always remember him saying that and to this day although I enjoy the models and tracking trends etc, I'm still going to keep my guard up until this storm is above my latitude and moving away. My thoughts are to believe the off shore models about 30 miles East of the Cape.

I remember Neil Frank saying the same thing about powerful cyclones, and their movement, I wonder can any model truly predict a cyclone like Dorian?...these storms can be oblivious it seems, to the steering patterns

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Despite the 06z Euro there NHC still well west of the morning runs including TCVN. I would expect another right shift at 11.

[Aric Dunn]

Key thing to point out from the 6z eps is the number of members showing wsw to sw moition into south florida..

[Canelaw99]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Despite the 06z Euro there NHC still well west of the morning runs including TCVN. I would expect another right shift at 11.

How are there so many SO far right of NHC track? The storm, as of now, seems to be headed more west. Even the NHC disco stated they expect westerly-ish movement. For some of those to verify, it would almost have to start going NW pretty soon, I would think ??? Help explain to us non-met people, please

[caneman]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Despite the 06z Euro there NHC still well west of the morning runs including TCVN. I would expect another right shift at 11.

I think I would disagree. We dont know what the FSU is telling them. Plus, it would be possibly far to close to Florida to sound an all clear. You also have the most Western movement and speed maintaining

[northjaxpro]

I know everyone is feeling better about things this morning in Florida but take a look at this trend over the last 5 GFS runs, about 3 days from 6am which is still quite a while.

Taking your eye off the storm itself for a second, to me, the trough that is coming down over CONUS looks like it is backing away a little bit, and the High/East of Dorian to the north seems to be building back in a bit over the last couple runs. If these features keep changing like this on run to run, i wouldn't sound the all clear for anyone on the Southern East Coast of the US.

https://media.giphy.com/media/gdZqYNdHnTO641ymqJ/source.gif

Ahh, you are paying close attention to synoptic details!! Terrific observations!! I have been monitoring this closely as well. It is CRITICAL with regards to the immediate short term situation with Dorian.

FOLKS. DO NOT LET YOUR GuARDS DOWN!!!!!
This is still a very complicated and fluid sitiation.

[Blown Away]

Many of the 06Z EPS bend back W at the end...

Question... If the stall occurs for long enough, is there another ridge or anything that can build in and bend it back W? Or even a loop like Jeanne if it were to turn N, NE, and then loops around?

06z/18z Euro goes out only 90 hrs, so I think your seeing the NNW movement begin after slowdown/stall, but if you go beyond 90 hrs on 12z/00z Dorian turns NE.

[Blown Away]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Despite the 06z Euro there NHC still well west of the morning runs including TCVN. I would expect another right shift at 11.

I think NHC is slowly moving away from Florida, just to clear those few outliers ensembles that show a close call or impact to Florida... They will continue moving towards the TVCN if it continues being right of their forecast track.

[USTropics]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Despite the 06z Euro there NHC still well west of the morning runs including TCVN. I would expect another right shift at 11.

How are there so many SO far right of NHC track? The storm, as of now, seems to be headed more west. Even the NHC disco stated they expect westerly-ish movement. For some of those to verify, it would almost have to start going NW pretty soon, I would think ??? Help explain to us non-met people, please

Models are just tools, they calculate differential and calculus mathematical equations governing the physics and motion of the atmosphere. They're never perfect, and a track towards and then paralleling Florida is always one of the most difficult to forecast. A positional error 50 miles west or east has a huge impact on where Dorian could go.

[chris_fit]

Just an FYI....

00Z EPS



06Z EPS

[northjaxpro]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167790679763951618

A very subtle , ever so slight shift SW this model packsge from the previous 00Z.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I have a feeling these models will shift back west or even further east...the storm is too far out still.

These models dont really becone a sure thing until 36 hours out.

Just sayin

[USTropics]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:

[stormlover2013]

Now we have a trend, around 8-10 days out models give us what could happen then around 4-6 days it flip flops little bit and makes our head hurt then around 2-3 days we start getting a trend and it always happens...the man up stairs could be doing the east coast of Florida and up around Carolinas a fav because this weird storm could miss the States which would be awesome !!