ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Siker]

As NDG has mentioned, ridging to the north of Dorian has been underestimated by both the GFS and the EURO in the short term. My phone won’t let me upload trend GIFs but just toggle 500mb height anomalies for the 00z euro vs. 24 hours ago and the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS vs. their estimates from 6 hours before. Note the increase in heights in the southeast and off the coast. This will probably aid in slightly more westward motion than some suites are forecasting in the next 60 hours.

Models agree that the shortwave passing over the eastern US on Monday should lower heights ahead of it and beneath it, leading to Dorian’s stall and drift NNW before a second shortwave on Wednesday pulls the storm ENE. South trends in the short term are awful for the Bahamas but may actually help avoid a US landfall, because the ENE movement would occur further south of the Carolinas. However, this hinges on the strength / amplitude of these troughs, as weaker troughing would allow Dorian to drift further west towards FL / the Southeast before a route to recurve opens up. Not to mention the strength / orientation of the ridging east / SE of Dorian which will be modified by Dorian’s own outflow. Sheesh, plenty to watch over the next 5 days.

[Blinhart]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

OK, went from 1 into Louisiana to 2.

[caneseddy]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

What is the green one that hits PBC east to west..is that the ensemble mean?

[USTropics]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

What is the green one that hits PBC east to west..is that the ensemble mean?

That is the mean of all ensemble members.

[AutoPenalti]

Is that the new UKMET? I thought the operational was right of the ensemble mean.

[jfk08c]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

Forgive my ignorance but why does the UKM model take it off the coast if most of it's ensemble members have it hitting Florida directly?

[USTropics]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

Forgive my ignorance but why does the UKM model take it off the coast if most of it's ensemble members have it hitting Florida directly?

Ensemble members are given different starting variables, to give an idea if x trough is weaker/stronger and y ridge is weaker/stronger, what are the possible outcomes?

[chris_fit]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

I'd say that it did change, leaning more left than at the 00Z

[USTropics]

Is that the new UKMET? I thought the operational was right of the ensemble mean.

06z/18z UKMET operational is run out to 60 hours only, the ensembles are run out to 168 hours though. You can find them here when they update:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ncep

[USTropics]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

I'd say that it did change, leaning more left than at the 00Z

Let me rephrase, the mean of the ensemble members hasn't changed from the 00z run:

[Aric Dunn]

06z UKMET ensembles haven't changed:
https://i.imgur.com/NTwABVo.png

I'd say that it did change, leaning more left than at the 00Z

Let me rephrase, the mean of the ensemble members hasn't changed from the 00z run:
https://i.imgur.com/90VpT8m.gif

not much change slightly left..

but some of the members are very intereting.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3112&fh=60


Nam

[gatorcane]

06Z EPS


More ensembles into SE Florida than 00Z. We are not off the hook in South Florida. And those UKMET ensembles are mostly into SE Florida. See graphic further up.

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z ICON is south of the 6Z. Pretty much due west through 24 hours.

[ronjon]

I counted only 2 out 51 ECM ensemble members hitting Florida on the 00z run versus about 14 or so on the 06z run. Also the overall orientation of the tracks are definitely more northerly on 00z versus more N-NW on most recent run. It may not mean much yet, but the 06z UK ensemble mean shifted slightly south at landfall and west closer to Tampa. So while overall offshore tracks look good at the moment, we need to closely monitor the situation over the next few days.

[gatorcane]

12Z ICON is south of the 6Z. Pretty much due west through 24 hours.

Heading west:

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy here we go...

[Blinhart]

12Z ICON is south of the 6Z. Pretty much due west through 24 hours.

Heading west:
https://i.postimg.cc/9Ftfx3mc/icon-mslp-wind-seus-16.png

And this could be the next 24 hours of models where everything starts moving a little more West. Just like yesterday was a move East.

[b0tzy29]

Keeping a close eye on that 26N 74W mark. It is foretasted to pass north of that.

[gatorcane]

Wow ICON back to the SW turn now at 51 hours