ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

I didn't know 141 knot SFMR now yields an intensity of 130 knots.

[Michele B]

Ok what did i miss lol..

Is there a circulation?

Not according to the map at the top of my screen!!

What happened to the "map?" Mine says "NO ACTIVE STORMS"

[Buck]

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[Aric Dunn]

sounds like they are waiting for the left shifts .. from the prolonged west motion..

"NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.:

[La Sirena]

NHC still holding back the 11am, they are probably ingesting new data right now.

EDIT: 150mph as of 11am.
Due W at 8mph.

You spelled vodka wrong

Actually, all I can think of is the classic “I picked the wrong week to stop drinking” at the NHC due to Dorian.

[supercane4867]

I didn't know 141 knot SFMR now yields an intensity of 130 knots.

Likely overinflated, which I believe is the same case with Matthew. I think Matthew should've never been upgraded to a CAT5

[caneseddy]

All of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach except the extreme NE portion out of the cone as of 11

[KWT]

It hasn't quite reached the 26th latitude yet, per the latest pass by the NOAA Recon 25 minutes ago.

14:29:30Z 25.917N 73.333W 749.9 mb
(~ 22.15 inHg) 2,048 meters
(~ 6,719 feet) 946.8 mb
(~ 27.96 inHg)

I'm guessing the lowest pressure is on the southern side of the eye which is indeed still south of 26N.

Looking increasingly unlikely this misses the northern Bahamas, especially Abaco and probably Grand Bahama, depsite what some of the models wanted on the 00z runs.

At least it has slowed down somewhat now.

[ronyan]

I didn't know 141 knot SFMR now yields an intensity of 130 knots.

Likely overinflated, which I believe is the same case with Matthew. I think Matthew should've never been upgraded to a CAT5

Code: Select all

Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian just shy of Cat 5 . What an incredible tropical cyclone and the story still has quite a long way to go before it is finished!!!

[gfsperpendicular]

The last frame had a wobble south. If not for that, he'd be solidly north of 26N. Still a ways to go until 74W.

[tropicwatch]

Forecast track even a little further offshore.

[otowntiger]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

[FLpanhandle91]

Just a few hints from some of the 06z runs and early 12z runs that Dorian may not totally recurve out and instead doesn't get quite far enough north to begin with, causing it to bend back NW/NNW past 96hrs.

Worth keeping an eye on to see if that emerges as a pattern on the 12z runs...

This is how I interpret the 06z EPS, especially given what appears to be the ridge building back west just a tad around hour 60.

[NDG]

Future trends by the ECMWF's ensembles will be very important, IMO.

Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

[caneseddy]

Some of the local stations here in South Florida are sounding the all clear saying we can breathe a sigh of relief..too soon

[chaser1]

I respect John and the NHC but I’m not entirely convinced to put all my eggs in that far right track basket. There’s way too many moving parts with this storm. I’ll be over here continuing to watch

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

That's a great post and reflects a really well learned perspective by Lixion who I used to enjoy chatting with years ago. Bottom line is when you've watched, tracked and forecasted these storms long enough, you come to the realization that many factors evolve and change 3, 4, and 5 days out. Like watching a boxing match and seeing how each boxer is "up", then fading, then "down", then "back up" again LOL, the result is an ongoing rise and fall of emotion, anxiety and anticipation. That is why there's different levels of preparation for a hurricane and why there's a time for buying supplies, a time for planning boarding up and cleaning the yard of loose items, and a time for logistics of decision and actions that relate to work, children, school/day care, and "bugging out"/evacuation. By and large, a lot of what people need to do is have an overall plan and then to simply WAIT AND WATCH.

On a related note, I'm here in Central Florida and couldn't help from laughing while watching the MANY home-owners having their lawns mowed "in preparation for the storm". I''m not making this up because I asked a couple neighbors as well as my own lawn maintenance guy For the life of me, I can't see the benefit of having a groomed lawn in the event that trees, my neighbors debris, and roofing material end up littered all over it following a hurricane impact. Just seems like some way of coping with nervous energy I guess LOL.

[EquusStorm]

Still a powerhouse this morning. Wonder if we get into the 930s today.

[Marie50]

What are the chances of Miami to Homestead getting any tropical storm winds?

[wxman57]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.