ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ian2401]

hwrf so far slightly south and slightly faster

[AutoPenalti]

Jesus, HWRF what are you doing...?

[hurricaneCW]

From this point slight SW shifts seem more likely. One thing to watch is whether the storm moves temporarily wsw as many models showed a couple days ago.

Current ridge doesn't max out until tomorrow so a more leftward turn wouldn't surprise me.

[ronjon]

Overall slight shift south and west on the 12z guidance with some models like ICON into Florida and others very close to the coast like legacy and CMC near the Cape. Lets see where the Euro lands as well as the ensembles later. Its going to be a very close call the next 48-96 hrs.

[fci]

Looks like a trend west for current model runs. Hopefully it doesn't continue. Not out of the woods.

Why?

[Buck]

Regarding ICON... I'm trying to gather more about this model. Am I correct that it's a newer model and theres not a ton of confidence in it yet, but that it has been pretty good with Dorian so far?

[Aric Dunn]

Overall slight shift south and west on the 12z guidance with some models like ICON into Florida and others very close to the coast like legacy and CMC near the Cape. Lets see where the Euro lands as well as the ensembles later. Its going to be a very close call the next 48-96 hrs.

It is going to be all about the ensembles for the NHC.. and if the 6z Euro and UKMET ensembles are any indication then 12z is sure to cause some infighting .. lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

[fci]

This run is looking less than spectacular for Wilmington.

That is the area that needs to be concerned until the future course is set.

[norva13x]

Looks like a trend west for current model runs. Hopefully it doesn't continue. Not out of the woods.

Why?

We are still far out, it is just one set of runs. But if it goes west more it could hint central FL. Doesn't take much of a shift. But it is just one set of runs we'll see.

[fci]

Looks like a trend west for current model runs. Hopefully it doesn't continue. Not out of the woods.

Why?

We are still far out, it is just one set of runs. But if it goes west more it could hint central FL. Doesn't take much of a shift. But it is just one set of runs we'll see.

Been multiple sets of runs since Friday morning. The NHC methodically took the course further and further east since then. They don't kneejerk but the most reliable models smelled the ridge eroding a while ago and have consistently showed that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF doesn't look all that different from the 06z. Maybe a touch faster and a little more south, but will probably show the same scenario as the GFS/CMC.

[alienstorm]

The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.

[norva13x]

Why?

We are still far out, it is just one set of runs. But if it goes west more it could hint central FL. Doesn't take much of a shift. But it is just one set of runs we'll see.

Been multiple sets of runs since Friday morning. The NHC methodically took the course further and further east since then. They don't kneejerk but the most reliable models smelled the ridge eroding a while ago and have consistently showed that.

Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.

[fci]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

[NDG]

ICON did very well with Barry, even better than the GFS which was right biased all along.

[norva13x]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

The NHC left the possibility of a left shift open in their discussion, and watches will certainly happen even if it remains offshore just because it is so close by.

[fci]

We are still far out, it is just one set of runs. But if it goes west more it could hint central FL. Doesn't take much of a shift. But it is just one set of runs we'll see.

Been multiple sets of runs since Friday morning. The NHC methodically took the course further and further east since then. They don't kneejerk but the most reliable models smelled the ridge eroding a while ago and have consistently showed that.

Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.

Never "out of the woods" until it is gone, can't disagree.
There really isn't a lot of reason to expect things to change.
So we watch. And react as needed.
But, I go back to the fact that there are no watches and no warnings; so they appear quite confident.
They are the experts and, sure; a stray model will say something very contrary but the consensus is very apparent here.
Thus no watches and no warnings.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

True words indeed. The NHC is by far the definitive source for track information. People need not worry about individual model runs so much leave that to the professionals.

[hohnywx]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

The NHC director was just interviewed and stated they are considering watches for Florida with the afternoon package. Watches are only issued within 48 hours.