ATL: DORIAN - Models

[norva13x]

Been multiple sets of runs since Friday morning. The NHC methodically took the course further and further east since then. They don't kneejerk but the most reliable models smelled the ridge eroding a while ago and have consistently showed that.

Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.

Never "out of the woods" until it is gone, can't disagree.
There really isn't a lot of reason to expect things to change.
So we watch. And react as needed.
But, I go back to the fact that there are no watches and no warnings; so they appear quite confident.
They are the experts and, sure; a stray model will say something very contrary but the consensus is very apparent here.
Thus no watches and no warnings.

Florida is in the 3 day cone, watches are guaranteed at some point even if it remains offshore.

[USTropics]

Keep in mind the official NHC plots show this still in the Bahamas going into Monday evening, watches are issued 48 hours before the arrival of TS winds and warnings are issued 24 hours.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF doesn't look all that different from the 06z. Maybe a touch faster and a little more south, but will probably show the same scenario as the GFS/CMC.

Actually it’s about15- 20 miles SW from its 06z run through 36hrs.

[CronkPSU]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

there are no watches yet cause we are still more than 24-48 hours away from those conditions getting to the coast, not because they don't feel there is a threat

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

To lighten the model a bit. Think about how many times over the years a long-range or even medium range model run has destroyed NYC by way of a storm. Models shift around sometimes, they do strange things. The experts at the NHC know how to interpret these idiosyncrasies and create the best forecast possible.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF doesn't look all that different from the 06z. Maybe a touch faster and a little more south, but will probably show the same scenario as the GFS/CMC.

Actually it’s about15- 20 miles SW from its 06z run through 36hrs.

its more the lack of a stall.. its just moving to the coast.

[fci]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

The NHC director was just interviewed and stated they are considering watches for Florida with the afternoon package. Watches are only issued within 48 hours.

Sure, probably TS watches since the storm could be close enough for that.

[caneman]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

[Shell Mound]

Based on the simulated IR through forty-two hours, the 12Z HWRF seems to show stronger ridging vs. 00Z, given greater symmetry of DORIAN.

[norva13x]

Remember yesterday morning when we all thought the models had locked on to PB? We have a long way to go, it is really beyond silly to say that there is such high confidence on where it is going when a change of a few miles could have huge consequences. Read the discussions, the NHC has said as much.

[fci]

Hey everyone, take a deep breath and stay calm. I think there will be a few more model shifts left and maybe right again before the track is nailed down. Because thirty or even twenty miles will make such a huge difference in terms of impact with a relatively small system like Dorian, this will be a nail-biter.

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

[norva13x]

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Just like how yesterday we were locked on to Palm Beach? But right, nothing can change.

[ronjon]

Been multiple sets of runs since Friday morning. The NHC methodically took the course further and further east since then. They don't kneejerk but the most reliable models smelled the ridge eroding a while ago and have consistently showed that.

Yes and things can change, Florida is a narrow state it doesn't take much of a shift for huge impacts. It is all about timing. I am NOT saying a landfall is going to happen, but we also aren't out of the woods either.

Never "out of the woods" until it is gone, can't disagree.
There really isn't a lot of reason to expect things to change.
So we watch. And react as needed.
But, I go back to the fact that there are no watches and no warnings; so they appear quite confident.
They are the experts and, sure; a stray model will say something very contrary but the consensus is very apparent here.
Thus no watches and no warnings.

All true, but then there is this from NHC at 11 am:

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

And this:

Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur.

[Aric Dunn]

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

no reason ? how did you come to that conclusion ?

[USTropics]

Forecast speed has been an issue (models showed Sunday landfall, then Monday morning, Monday evening, etc). An even slightly faster system makes a big difference:
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167824177216270337

[fci]

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Just like how yesterday we were locked on to Palm Beach? But right, nothing can change.

Yes, but the further you are away the more variable the forecast.
And while we were locked into Palm Beach 2 days ago, the most reliable models showed the trend to the East and staying offshore.
NHC reacts slowly and cautiously to the models but it was quite apparent since mid-day Friday that each subsequent track was going to be further off shore.

[caneman]

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

I disagree. It's been moving mostly westward at a decent clip and South of many models. Not by alot but we're talking just 60 miles to be hitting Florida. And some models trending back west. I noticed first thing this morning on water vapor how much the high was really steering this thing. So, there are actual reasons it may trend back west

[Ian2401]

through 51 hrs hwrf is nearly a full degree W and S slightly

[NDG]

So far the 12z HWRF is around 50 miles west of previous run at its 51 hr forecast.

[fci]

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

no reason ? how did you come to that conclusion ?

OK, what reason is there to suspect that there will be a change in 12-24 hours?
I'm going off what I am seeing in models and what the NHC is saying but I am no Pro Met nor pretend to be at all.
But I absolutely defer to people like you who study this for a living!
So, what are you seeing that indicates that there would be a change back to a landfall in Florida?