ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

Euro HP trend... Little stronger it appears on 12z...

[BobHarlem]

12Z HMON Landfall near Brunswick, GA Thursday morning.

[Mouton]

. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

And this:

Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur.

This has been my chief worry for the Northeast Flotia region:

STORM SURGE FLOODIING.

Dorian does not have to impact the Northeast Florida region with a direct landfall here in the region.to cause potential major storm surge into the Ssint Johns River and.its tributaries. Irma demonstrated that 2 years ago. Dorian's inner core, should it get as close as within 50 miles of Jacksonville, can still cause potential of major surge into the river, especally if it moved NW to N, parallel.up the coast causing a prolonged onshore fetch into the river.

Also, can not forget the Intracoastal Waterway as well as storm surge would cause problems along that basin .

and the St Mary's river and intercoastal in Nassau County. The Fernandina Beach marina is still under repair from Mathew. The bend at the Fl/Ga coast where the St Mary's/Amelia River outflow is a massive surge collector. Nowhere for the water to go especially during abnormally high "king" tides as the mouth is oriented toward NE winds.

[Siker]

EURO initialized

High pressure looks stronger on initialation

It certainly is vs. yesterday’s 12z. And last night’s 00z was stronger with it than yesterday’s 00z. Same with the GFS vs. its past several runs. We’ll see what it does with the shortwaves.

[dukeblue219]

Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.

18z has already passed (1 PM). Hopefully it can be inputted for 0z (7 PM).

18Z is 2pm EDT and has not quite passed (but obviously will soon).

[MrJames]

Slightly south at 24hrs. Same speed.

[BobHarlem]

12Z HWRF, landfall just South of Charelston, SC late Wednesday night.

[NDG]

At 24 hrs Euro shows a little more ridging to the north than from yesterday's 12z run.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro trend...

[ricka47]

This has been my chief worry for the Northeast Flotia region:

STORM SURGE FLOODIING.

Dorian does not have to impact the Northeast Florida region with a direct landfall here in the region.to cause potential major storm surge into the Ssint Johns River and.its tributaries. Irma demonstrated that 2 years ago. Dorian's inner core, should it get as close as within 50 miles of Jacksonville, can still cause potential of major surge into the river, especally if it moved NW to N, parallel.up the coast causing a prolonged onshore fetch into the river.

Also, can not forget the Intracoastal Waterway as well as storm surge would cause problems along that basin .

and the St Mary's river and intercoastal in Nassau County. The Fernandina Beach marina is still under repair from Mathew. The bend at the Fl/Ga coast where the St Mary's/Amelia River outflow is a massive surge collector. Nowhere for the water to go especially during abnormally high "king" tides as the mouth is oriented toward NE winds.

Any idea what conditions would have to be met before they evacuate the island? Is it the strength of the storm or how far west it will be or a combination of both?

[hohnywx]

Discussion topic just said that Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off. It's the plane that will take readings of the ridge strength and orientation. Hopefully, the data can already be implemented in the 18z models and maybe it'll lead to a clearer picture of the situation.

18z has already passed (1 PM). Hopefully it can be inputted for 0z (7 PM).

18Z is 2pm EDT and has not quite passed (but obviously will soon).

Thanks, was in winter storm mode

[tolakram]

Hey all. Please remember this is the model thread. A lot of discussion taking place here belongs in the discussion thread. Thanks.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro South of previous at 48 hours...

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z Euro is due west between 24 and 48 hours. Just southeast of Freeport.

[NDG]

At 48 hrs is south of Grand Bahama, with slightly stronger ridging remaining to the north than from yesterday's 12z run.

Edit: actually a little less ridging than from yesterday's 12z run.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://i.imgur.com/yTcLzDj.gif

12z Euro South of previous at 48 hours...

Slightly

Paitintly waiting next frames

[SFLcane]

Euro very close to SFL...

[Canelaw99]

Euro very close to SFL...

Image ? Even a mapped one with an approximate point showing it (I know some images aren’t allowed)

[AutoPenalti]

Euro very close to SFL...

It’s about ~100 miles, still running though.

[Kazmit]

To me this is the run that will really decide FL fate. I truly believe that. If Euro continues to turn it, then I think it’s all but gonna surely happen and we can start focusing on the Carolinas.

Why this run in particular?