ATL: DORIAN - Models

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SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4801 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:07 pm

:eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4802 Postby storm4u » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:07 pm

Euro pretty much stays put between 48 and 72
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4803 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:07 pm

Kazmit wrote:
beachman80 wrote:To me this is the run that will really decide FL fate. I truly believe that. If Euro continues to turn it, then I think it’s all but gonna surely happen and we can start focusing on the Carolinas.

Why this run in particular?



Its within the 60ish hour window
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4804 Postby MrJames » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:07 pm

And heading due N from 48 to 72 hrs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4805 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:08 pm

Looks like it’s gonna make a direct hit somewhere on the SE coast line.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4806 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:08 pm

Euro moving N at 72.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4807 Postby Kat5 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:08 pm

storm4u wrote:Euro pretty much stays put between 48 and 72


Seems NNW.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4808 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:08 pm

Wow, for at least 36 hours it barely moves.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4809 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:09 pm

That ridge coming from the Midwest... what is that.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4810 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:09 pm

Sit & Spin 48-72
Way too close
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4811 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:09 pm

Looks like an opening

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4812 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:10 pm

That is really really close

Closer than last run. The trend is still a hair west for sure.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4813 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:11 pm

The 12z I posted I believe is in comparison to 12z yesterday... So I don't know how it compares to the 06z Euro today...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4814 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:12 pm

you think with this models tend that taking south fl off cone could been too early ??? i am here in miami their giving us clean what i see
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4815 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:12 pm

12Z Euro as of 78 tells me very good chance it will be a bit E of 0Z run off GA/Carolinas but let’s see.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4816 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:12 pm

One thing for sure: Josh won’t be disappointed if the euro verifies lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4817 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:12 pm

Carolinagirl18 wrote:
beachman80 wrote:To me this is the run that will really decide FL fate. I truly believe that. If Euro continues to turn it, then I think it’s all but gonna surely happen and we can start focusing on the Carolinas.

North or South? the"Carolinas" have a lot of coast line and we are two different states. Just wondering which state you reference to

Most of the EPS members have been consistently taken DORIAN to the east of the Carolinas for the past couple of runs, so maybe the entire East Coast will be fortunate. Think HELENE (1958), albeit displaced (a bit farther offshore). Given the size and intensity, expect very large waves and surf along the entire Eastern Seaboard, especially from east-central FL northward, with the worst impacts to be felt in the Bahamas, the coastal Carolinas, and Bermuda.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4818 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:14 pm

Eastward trended eastward here on the euro compared to 00z
Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4819 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:15 pm

floridasun78 wrote:you think with this models tend that taking south fl off cone could been too early ??? i am here in miami their giving us clean what i see



Definately...the weakness is a probability but not a sure thing. Storms this big drive themselves
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4820 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:15 pm

Seems like Dorian hits a brick Wall on the 12Z Euro - Actually takes a wobble EAST in the Bahamas and then turns north.
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