ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

For Tuesday morning is fairly close to last night's run forecasted position, maybe 15 miles east of it.

[norva13x]

you think with this models tend that taking south fl off cone could been too early ??? i am here in miami their giving us clean what i see

Miami is in the clear. You are good. Cape Canaveral and north still need to monitor.

Don't tell people they are in the clear when there is still a lot of uncertainty.

[MrJames]

NNW at 96hrs.

[crimi481]

We see the "opening shown, but what will lift it north?

[chris_fit]

Wow jolting North! Every model run seems so different than the last....

[CronkPSU]

There’s the north turn at 72hrs. Florida looking really good now. I think we need to start focusing our concern on the Carolinas. This is not a Florida storm.

I mean the models have shifted slightly closer to Florida. With it stalling, anything can still happen. Don't relax just yet.

I just don’t see it. Model accuracy is better than ever and they are picking up things all models see. There’s a clear opening for this to move north. There’s not enough steering to get this west enough to Fla. All models are showing this clearly. But I agree...still worth keeping an eye on.

they just missed big time WITH THIS STORM over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, stop claiming for certain with each post this will miss Florida, we are still over 48 hours away and this will be a very close call with most model showing very little distance between the eye and the coast

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z Euro looks Floyidsh. That was another one that gave the Florida East Coast a scare.

[beachman80]

you think with this models tend that taking south fl off cone could been too early ??? i am here in miami their giving us clean what i see

Miami is in the clear. You are good. Cape Canaveral and north still need to monitor.

Don't tell people they are in the clear when there is still a lot of uncertainty.

How so? Not one model takes this anywhere south of Jupiter anymore, at least any decent model. Need to be realistic here. There’s a slim chance anywhere north of Jupiter gets hit, sure, but those south look to be in the clear. Just being realistic here that’s all.

[Blinhart]

you think with this models tend that taking south fl off cone could been too early ??? i am here in miami their giving us clean what i see

Miami is in the clear. You are good. Cape Canaveral and north still need to monitor.

You can not say something like this until after the event is over, this is what a lot of people are talking about, when there is so much questions about future tracks. How would you like it if your parents lived in Miami and you told them it is ok and then Dorian ends up over Miami and destroys everything they own????

[SFLcane]

Yep euro trending eastward there which will keep more then likely TS force winds away from FL. Looking good this afternoon as it stands in terms of extreme SFL.

[Condor]

We should have a better understanding soon enough on the strength of the ridge. We haven't had data in I think its been a day so that is going to play a major role

[fci]

Just like how yesterday we were locked on to Palm Beach? But right, nothing can change.

Yes, but the further you are away the more variable the forecast.
And while we were locked into Palm Beach 2 days ago, the most reliable models showed the trend to the East and staying offshore.
NHC reacts slowly and cautiously to the models but it was quite apparent since mid-day Friday that each subsequent track was going to be further off shore.

I don't think anything about this storm has been "quite apparent". The margin of error at 3 days is more than enough to potentially put Dorian onshore in Florida. To rule it out at this point is about the equivalent of trying to wish it away. People are complacent enough about the weather in general as it is, the last thing we need is sentiments being thrown around that this decidedly won't hit the coast. I haven't seen anything from the NHC stating with that level of confidence that this will stay offshore, and I don't think we should say that until they do first.

I have not ruled it out. I just don’t see it happening.
Quite frankly I’d answer the “trying to wish it away” but countering that there a few out there who are doing exactly the opposite.
My comments are based on what the NHC is saying, lack of Hurricane Watches and models that almost all show this storm staying off shore.
Nevertheless, I am still vigilant, but REALISTIC.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep euro trending eastward there which will keep more then likely TS force winds away from FL. Looking good this afternoon as it stands in terms of extreme SFL.

With the initial more west then wsw dip.. the ensembles will likely show more over florida.

[BobHarlem]

We should have a better understanding soon enough on the strength of the ridge. We haven't had data in I think its been a day so that is going to play a major role

I think it'll help with timing, but the reasons for it going north instead of west seem pretty solid at this point. When this stalls out on Monday people are going to lose their mind here. I think it's more about how close it gets to the coast at this point.

[norva13x]

Yes, but the further you are away the more variable the forecast.
And while we were locked into Palm Beach 2 days ago, the most reliable models showed the trend to the East and staying offshore.
NHC reacts slowly and cautiously to the models but it was quite apparent since mid-day Friday that each subsequent track was going to be further off shore.

I don't think anything about this storm has been "quite apparent". The margin of error at 3 days is more than enough to potentially put Dorian onshore in Florida. To rule it out at this point is about the equivalent of trying to wish it away. People are complacent enough about the weather in general as it is, the last thing we need is sentiments being thrown around that this decidedly won't hit the coast. I haven't seen anything from the NHC stating with that level of confidence that this will stay offshore, and I don't think we should say that until they do first.

I have not ruled it out. I just don’t see it happening.
Quite frankly I’d answer the “trying to wish it away” but countering that there a few out there who are doing exactly the opposite.
My comments are based on what the NHC is saying, lack of Hurricane Watches and models that almost all show this storm staying off shore.
Nevertheless, I am still vigilant, but REALISTIC.

Again, watches come out 48 hours before. Again, the NHC discussion has outright said there is uncertainty. I am not wishing or predicting anything, but you are talking with more certainty than there really is. Hopefully it will stay out.

[toad strangler]

That weakness in the ridge had better verify. Way to close to FL. This run gives E central FL never ending outer bands at least.

[MrJames]

[NDG]

I feel better that the 12z Euro did not shifted any more west when it gets to the northern Bahamas but anything past 72 hours does not get written on stone just yet for FL.

[USTropics]

We see the "opening shown, but what will lift it north?

Tropical systems naturally want to go poleward or towards the lowest pressure (barring there's not a ridge in place to prevent it). In this instance, there's a large trough over Canada that is the main steering influence, eroding the high pressure to Dorian's NE to allow this:

[BrandonJay21]

Yep euro trending eastward there which will keep more then likely TS force winds away from FL. Looking good this afternoon as it stands in terms of extreme SFL.

With the initial more west then wsw dip.. the ensembles will likely show more over florida.

Difference between the model run and the ensembles? Does the model take a cumulative look at the ensembles? Or?