ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ian2401]

when do we get EPS ensembles

[Condor]

We should have a better understanding soon enough on the strength of the ridge. We haven't had data in I think its been a day so that is going to play a major role

I think it'll help with timing, but the reasons for it going north instead of west seem pretty solid at this point. When this stalls out on Monday people are going to lose their mind here. I think it's more about how close it gets to the coast at this point.

Its going to be very important when it makes that turn north. As a lot of the earlier models showed that happening when the system was over florida. An that is still not outside the realm of possibilities

[SFLcane]

I feel better that the 12z Euro did not shifted any more west when it gets to the northern Bahamas but anything past 72 hours does not get written on stone just yet for FL.

It did not shift any further westward it was eastward with a sharper turn north. Ensembles probably out to sea

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes, but the further you are away the more variable the forecast.
And while we were locked into Palm Beach 2 days ago, the most reliable models showed the trend to the East and staying offshore.
NHC reacts slowly and cautiously to the models but it was quite apparent since mid-day Friday that each subsequent track was going to be further off shore.

I don't think anything about this storm has been "quite apparent". The margin of error at 3 days is more than enough to potentially put Dorian onshore in Florida. To rule it out at this point is about the equivalent of trying to wish it away. People are complacent enough about the weather in general as it is, the last thing we need is sentiments being thrown around that this decidedly won't hit the coast. I haven't seen anything from the NHC stating with that level of confidence that this will stay offshore, and I don't think we should say that until they do first.

I have not ruled it out. I just don’t see it happening.
Quite frankly I’d answer the “trying to wish it away” but countering that there a few out there who are doing exactly the opposite.
My comments are based on what the NHC is saying, lack of Hurricane Watches and models that almost all show this storm staying off shore.
Nevertheless, I am still vigilant, but REALISTIC.

A lack of hurricane watches is due to the fact that any potential landfall is still outside of the defined lead time for a watch, which is 48 hours. If landfall were actually to occur, it would be nearly 72 hours from now.

[dukeblue219]

Yep euro trending eastward there which will keep more then likely TS force winds away from FL. Looking good this afternoon as it stands in terms of extreme SFL.

With the initial more west then wsw dip.. the ensembles will likely show more over florida.

Difference between the model run and the ensembles? Does the model take a cumulative look at the ensembles? Or?

The ensembles have small perturbation in their initial conditions to account for the fact that we can't perfectly measure the entire atmosphere in real life. If all those varied ensembles show similar results then it suggests it's a likely solution. If they're all over the map it means even a butterfly flapping its wings can cause the storm to go a different way (so to speak) and thus confidence is lower.

The ensembles are run at lower resolution so they can all run in a reasonable time.

[northjaxpro]

Please refrain from the "in the clear" references people. It is so irresponsible to be making these proclamations, especially in such a complicated steering set-up. This is still a fluid, evolving situation.

Please stop with these references.At the very least, go on the discussson thread with this. Not here on this thread!

[seahawkjd]

The Euro certainly seems to show it expanding in size as it moves north. I forget, how good is the Euro on predicting the size of storms?

[BobHarlem]

No CONUS landfall on the 12z Euro.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF...

[tolakram]

Next poster who says someone is in the clear gets a 10 day timeout.

AM I CLEAR. Also, if you keep responding to these trolling posts you may end up with a timeout as well.

Cut the crap, stay on topic.

[MrJames]

[toad strangler]

We should have a better understanding soon enough on the strength of the ridge. We haven't had data in I think its been a day so that is going to play a major role

I think it'll help with timing, but the reasons for it going north instead of west seem pretty solid at this point. When this stalls out on Monday people are going to lose their mind here. I think it's more about how close it gets to the coast at this point.

Its going to be very important when it makes that turn north. As a lot of the earlier models showed that happening when the system was over florida. An that is still not outside the realm of possibilities

This is the monster in the closet right now. I’m pretty confident in ridge breakdown as modeled but not confident at all on when and where.

[stauglocal]

It is only Saturday, so models can shift many more times before is all said and done. Everyone in Florida and the entire SE coast should monitor this. The NHC has shifted there forecast dramatically in the last couple of days and it may shift back again. Anyone saying that Florida is in the clear is delusional. Be very vigilant my friends...

[chris_fit]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone mind posting the 12z UKMET? I don't think I saw it and I don't have access to it. Also, did the UKMET ensembles run?

[Siker]

Anyone mind posting the 12z UKMET? I don't think I saw it and I don't have access to it. Also, did the UKMET ensembles run?

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 0 25.8N 73.0W 986 60
0000UTC 01.09.2019 12 26.3N 75.2W 984 63
1200UTC 01.09.2019 24 26.4N 76.8W 978 66
0000UTC 02.09.2019 36 26.5N 77.8W 968 65
1200UTC 02.09.2019 48 26.5N 78.3W 963 69
0000UTC 03.09.2019 60 26.6N 78.5W 954 75
1200UTC 03.09.2019 72 26.9N 78.7W 944 79
0000UTC 04.09.2019 84 28.1N 79.5W 923 94
1200UTC 04.09.2019 96 29.5N 80.4W 931 91
0000UTC 05.09.2019 108 31.2N 80.1W 932 90
1200UTC 05.09.2019 120 32.8N 78.5W 925 93
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 34.7N 75.5W 927 94
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 36.1N 71.5W 940 80

[hurricaneCW]

Euro spends 36 hrs torturing Abaco and Grand Bahama island. Horrendous outlook for them.

I don't think the curve will be as sharp as the Euro shows, I do think Florida should be feeling better today though it's still not over.

It's going to be close for the Carolinas, the synoptic pattern could change wildly in 5 days. It's very unlikely that the track you're seeing now will be the one that actually happens.

[Condor]

Anyone have the numbers from recent recon that went up?

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/8LGucMC.png

Keep in mind the Euro 48 hours ago had a landfall near Destin on the Florida panhandle...

[Ken711]

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
·
6m
Attention will shift to the Carolinas with Hurricane #Dorian thru next week.

Dorian will be a very large hurricane by then so any proximity to the coast would still mean hurricane conditions.