ATL: DORIAN - Models

[brghteys1216]

12z UKMET ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/22PtaeH.png

Pretty concerning, especially given UKMET accuracy 72 hours out with this storm.

[SFLcane]

Those 12z UK ensembles are extreme outliers.

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET continues to be east of the ensemble. Yikes.

Left bias though usually, correct?

Yeah but the operational is East of the ensemble.

[Ken711]

Those 12z UK ensembles are extreme outliers.

I would hope so.

[MetroMike]

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

What is it that these ensembles are seeing that other don't?
Maybe a stall before and a change to the steering currents?

[Bluehawk]

12z UKMET ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/22PtaeH.png

Please bear with my lack of knowledge: 1) Is there a difference between UKMET and UKMO? 2) If this is the 12z UKMET, then how come someone posted a 12z UKMET plot earlier (previous page I believe) showing the UKMET as OTS, with the rest of the ensembles? I'm so confused right now

[Aric Dunn]

Those 12z UK ensembles are extreme outliers.

Euro has a few that are similar.. and same with GFS>. dont count anything out. very tricky situation.

[TheStormExpert]

Those 12z UK ensembles are extreme outliers.

Euro has a few that are similar.. and same with GFS>. dont count anything out. very tricky situation.

The vast majority of guidance is through the Northwestern Bahamas and cutting close to the Carolinas. Florida’s Hurricane shield is in full force!

[Aric Dunn]

Those 12z UK ensembles are extreme outliers.

Euro has a few that are similar.. and same with GFS>. dont count anything out. very tricky situation.

The vast majority of guidance is through the Northwestern Bahamas and cutting close to the Carolinas.

yeah that is not the point..

point is the Dorian will be sitting on a table balanced on a pole.. things can tip any direction. So UKMET has good amount of members wsw into florida, EUro has a few.. etc.. it is very much a possibility given the setup.

[PandaCitrus]

It's quite possible the ridge is stronger than the models think it is. The atmosphere around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days because the plane windshields have been damaged. But weather balloon reports around Georgia suggest a stronger ridge than the models are showing. This would tend to cause the bend south some of the ensembles show before turning north.

So, it's a timing issue. Stronger ridge, southerly drift. I've also read meteorologists suggest the late summer transitional period tends to confound the models with trofs. They may be overdoing the strength.

Either error could have major track implications. We just don't know yet. So cautious optimism and vigilance is warranted. Remember the models initially didn't have Dorian being born at all, slamming and dissipating in Hispaniola, direct hit on Puerto Rico. Truthfully, the models have done a poor job so far with Dorian and there is plenty of chance for error.

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

What is it that these ensembles are seeing that other don't?
Maybe a stall before and a change to the steering currents?

[TheStormExpert]

Euro has a few that are similar.. and same with GFS>. dont count anything out. very tricky situation.

The vast majority of guidance is through the Northwestern Bahamas and cutting close to the Carolinas.

yeah that is not the point..

point is the Dorian will be sitting on a table balanced on a pole.. things can tip any direction. So UKMET has good amount of members wsw into florida, EUro has a few.. etc.. it is very much a possibility given the setup.

Most models though do not dip this WSW anymore. Why’s that?

[Aric Dunn]

The vast majority of guidance is through the Northwestern Bahamas and cutting close to the Carolinas.

yeah that is not the point..

point is the Dorian will be sitting on a table balanced on a pole.. things can tip any direction. So UKMET has good amount of members wsw into florida, EUro has a few.. etc.. it is very much a possibility given the setup.

Most models though do not dip this WSW anymore. Why’s that?

here watch this...

https://youtu.be/Hue3IzgkVRA

[TheStormExpert]

It's quite possible the ridge is stronger than the models think it is. The atmosphere around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days because the plane windshields have been damaged. But weather balloon reports around Georgia suggest a stronger ridge than the models are showing. This would tend to cause the bend south some of the ensembles show before turning north.

So, it's a timing issue. Stronger ridge, southerly drift. I've also read meteorologists suggest the late summer transitional period tends to confound the models with trofs. They may be overdoing the strength.

Either error could have major track implications. We just don't know yet. So cautious optimism and vigilance is warranted. Remember the models initially didn't have Dorian being born at all, slamming and dissipating in Hispaniola, direct hit on Puerto Rico. Truthfully, the models have done a poor job so far with Dorian and there is plenty of chance for error.

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

What is it that these ensembles are seeing that other don't?
Maybe a stall before and a change to the steering currents?

Ridges have tended to be stronger than originally thought by the models for the past few years in this region, but there has been a lack of ridging and more troughs swinging through the eastern third of the U.S. all summer long thanks to the -NAO. Right now the NAO is near neutral which probably explains why Dorian managed to get further west in the first place.

[TheStormExpert]

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

It looks like Dorian is riding the northern edge of these ensembles. Which would put more credence towards the offshore ones.

[WeatherEmperor]

It's quite possible the ridge is stronger than the models think it is. The atmosphere around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days because the plane windshields have been damaged. But weather balloon reports around Georgia suggest a stronger ridge than the models are showing. This would tend to cause the bend south some of the ensembles show before turning north.

So, it's a timing issue. Stronger ridge, southerly drift. I've also read meteorologists suggest the late summer transitional period tends to confound the models with trofs. They may be overdoing the strength.

Either error could have major track implications. We just don't know yet. So cautious optimism and vigilance is warranted. Remember the models initially didn't have Dorian being born at all, slamming and dissipating in Hispaniola, direct hit on Puerto Rico. Truthfully, the models have done a poor job so far with Dorian and there is plenty of chance for error.

What is it that these ensembles are seeing that other don't?
Maybe a stall before and a change to the steering currents?

Ridges have tended to be stronger than originally thought by the models for the past few years in this region, but there has been a lack of ridging and more troughs swinging through the eastern third of the U.S. all summer long thanks to the -NAO. Right now the NAO is near neutral which probably explains why Dorian managed to get further west in the first place.

Good point about the NAO. Here is a closeup where the NAO currently is and projected to be in the next few days




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[invest man]

Does anyone know from 5 day model outputs whether there is still a potential if him being a major entering ENC? Getting kind of anxious up here now too! I didn’t like there pressures I saw on the legacy or euro last runs! Any help would be appreciated! Thanks

[LarryWx]

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

It looks like Dorian is riding the northern edge of these ensembles. Which would put more credence towards the offshore ones.

Not surprising since UK op/ens is left biased.

[floridasun78]

let see what models do nhc talk about doing 5pm avd

[AdamFirst]

Today on "It's the NAM", the 18z NAM retrogrades Dorian back to the east starting at 48hr.

[HurryKane]

point is the Dorian will be sitting on a table balanced on a pole.. things can tip any direction.

That is a fantastic analogy.

Having been involved on the computing side of a few models from the past and today...it is fascinating to see how they are behaving with Dorian.