ATL: DORIAN - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z GFS Ensembles:

[Sambucol]

Just goes to show how delicate the set up.. just a very small amount of missing data caused pretty drastic changes. and the rest of the data might be even more west..

Is there any chance Dorian gets into GOM?

[sma10]

18Z GFS Ensembles:

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019083118_GEFS_0-120h_large.png?20190831233056

Yikes, not good. Very, very few of those paths are reflective of Dorians actual current motion

[chris_fit]

18Z Euro takes Dorian straight up NW in the first 3 hours....before returning to W - interesting - off already?

[canes92]

So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.

Tell me about it. The suspense is killing me. Everyday seems so long.

[tolakram]

Just goes to show how delicate the set up.. just a very small amount of missing data caused pretty drastic changes. and the rest of the data might be even more west..

Is there any chance Dorian gets into GOM?

Everything is a percentage. The chances of it making it into the GOM are lower than hitting Florida are lower than it staying just offshore. The ridge is forecast to break down, sending Dorian north, WHEN is the question.

[sma10]

18Z Euro takes Dorian straight up NW in the first 3 hours....before returning to W - interesting - off already?

Keep us updated
A lot of the gfs ens also shoot this nw quickly as well

[ScottNAtlanta]

So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.

Lots and lots of moving parts.

The fact that the ULL that was supposed to dive SW but hasn't tells me that the high in the GOM that was supposed to move south and provide steering counter to the high currently pushing Dorian west causing a stall is not where it was forecast to be. It is possible the stall will not happen, or happen much later than forecast. I have been watching this most of the day.

[Blinhart]

Just goes to show how delicate the set up.. just a very small amount of missing data caused pretty drastic changes. and the rest of the data might be even more west..

Is there any chance Dorian gets into GOM?

As of right now there is nearly 0% chance of it getting into the GoM. And if you know me, that is hard for me to say, but the only way to know for sure is to wait and see what will happen, there are way to many variables that are changing constantly. If I would put overall odds of it making into the GoM about less than 20%, but right now it is at about 0.05%

[chris_fit]

so far 18Z Euro is similar to 12Z - right over middle Abacore Island in 24 hours.

[KWT]

18Z Euro takes Dorian straight up NW in the first 3 hours....before returning to W - interesting - off already?

Sometimes the models try to snap the low into a place that it thinks is most reasonable. Doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong, but you do have to slightly adjust track manually to compensate.

[chris_fit]

18z EURO stalling over Abacore which is NE of 12Z run (slightly)

[Blown Away]

Dorian moving along the S side of nearly all the 18z GFS ensembles...

[chris_fit]

18z EURO at 39 hours it's as W it ever got on the 12Z - let's see what happens next (W shift or N)

[chris_fit]

18z EURO still stalled over Grand Bahama island (E end) at 51 hours

[tolakram]

Another horrible stall right over the island. Sheesh

[cjrciadt]

https://i.imgur.com/iF3P4ol.jpg
Dorian moving along the S side of nearly all the 18z GFS ensembles...

[NDG]

18Z GFS Ensembles:

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019083118_GEFS_0-120h_large.png?20190831233056

Wow, that's 7 members now showing showing partial* landfall either along the immediate coast or well inland.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 18Z NAVGEM:

[chris_fit]

Still stalled @ 63 hours (Tuesday Morning) over Grand Bahama