ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

18z Navgem… Another significant W shift... Trend..

[tolakram]

From hour 42 to 66 it's basically sitting in the same spot, at 69 it's moving NW, at 72 hours moving north.

[chris_fit]

18Z EURO moving N at 72 hours - Very similar to 12Z - don't see a shift one way or the other

[b0tzy29]

I will continue to post these but the trend is back south and west. I fear for Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

ummm im guessing the Euro did not get the G4 data into the 18z.... 48 hours over Grand bahama.. really.... then straight north...

at least 2 separate shortwaves had to have gone by in that time.

[toad strangler]

The extended stall output from the Euro makes me want to discount it.

[chris_fit]

The extended stall output from the Euro makes me want to discount it.

It's shown this over the last many many many runs....

[WeatherEmperor]

Another look at the 18Z NAVGEM:

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/VkdPsggx/nvg10-sfc10m-060-go-mex.gimg]

Gator, you and I have been postinf on S2K for a loooong time but I think Im going to need some therapy for all the left and right swings the models are putting us through lol


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[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder what the EURO would be showing if it wasn't stalling it like that? It seems like that's the reason it's so much offshore, because of the couple of days of stalling it. So my opinion is, if the NHC agrees with the stall, they they won't move the track west, but if they don't agree with the stall, then they will will move the track a bit west, based upon what other models are showing....

[MetroMike]

ummm im guessing the Euro did not get the G4 data into the 18z.... 48 hours over Grand bahama.. really.... then straight north...

at least 2 separate shortwaves had to have gone by in that time.

According to Levi Cowen it was ingested into the GFS 18z run.

[TheDreamTraveler]

ummm im guessing the Euro did not get the G4 data into the 18z.... 48 hours over Grand bahama.. really.... then straight north...

at least 2 separate shortwaves had to have gone by in that time.

Yeah isn't 18z euro basically a variation of 12z? 0z we'll know for sure.

[STRiZZY]

Post of the year lol. Thanks for the chuckle

NDG this is a classic post my friend lol.. But, I hope people truly leàrned a very teachable lesson about this!! I spoke of this in the Discussions thread.

Actually i dont believe a single "all clear" was given or posted by anyone.

There has been many. Lurk more lol

[Kat5]

Another look at the 18Z NAVGEM:

https://i.postimg.cc/VkdPsggx/nvg10-sfc10m-060-go-mex.gif

Gator, you and I have been postinf on S2K for a loooong time but I think Im going to need some therapy for all the left and right swings the models are putting us through lol


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If you recall, the biggest I’ve seen was tropical storm Fay with models swinging from Mexico to Florida, then Texas again, back to Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

18z EURO

[northjaxpro]

So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.

Lots and lots of moving parts.

The fact that the ULL that was supposed to dive SW but hasn't tells me that the high in the GOM that was supposed to move south and provide steering counter to the high currently pushing Dorian west causing a stall is not where it was forecast to be. It is possible the stall will not happen, or happen much later than forecast. I have been watching this most of the day.

Solid analysis Scott. The ULL actually has been moving west all day.long in tandem with Dorian. Ridging north of Dorian may indeed be stronger than initially thought.

[LarryWx]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

[Aric Dunn]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

[otowntiger]

18z EURO

https://i.ibb.co/Rv5vVgV/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

https://media3.giphy.com/media/cr9vIO7NsP5cY/giphy.gif

That’s encouraging. Euro holding steady- onto that L shaped track with a hard right turn.

[MetroMike]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

[ExBailbonds]

Then your not reading in real time as they have been many but i think the mods here delete them as they should.

Edit Opps the quote from above did not stick