ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Maybe just my eyes but it looks to be going a hair south of west on radar

[NFLnut]

https://i.imgur.com/TuTU3lC.gif

Latest... Very slight N wobble then back to due W... Seems to picked up a little speed...

The eye appears to be contracting in that GIF.

The official forecast has it near 76W at 2 PM tomorrow and its moving too fast over the last couple hours. Hopefully it slows some soon or they will have to shift the track back onto the Florida coast.

It's already slowed down to 8 mph. NHC forecasts it at about 77W at 2pm.

[gatorcane]

Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

I see straight west as well looking at IR.

[Hammy]

They'll probably go 155 next advisory, they don't seem to like going to Cat 5 close to land.

[supercane4867]

This is a CAT5....nuff said

[Michele B]

Maybe just my eyes but it looks to be going a hair south of west on radar

So are the cirrus clouds, ala John Hope.

[CrazyC83]

With that data I would go 145 kt.

[Evenstar]

???? If a Storm stalls close to the coast... Does the Earths rotation ever come into play? Can the coast run into the stalled storm?

The atmosphere as a whole rotates along with the geographic earth so no

Just something that ran though my head. Thanks.

For one brief shining moment, I pondered the plausibility of this...

[catskillfire51]

With all the weather channels watching the same thing we are I imagine the NHC will be forced to because all the weather channels will be broadcasting what recon found.

[Kazmit]

If Matthew was upgraded, this should be too.

[supercane4867]

151kt FL level corresponds to roughly 136kt at surface, along with the insane SFMR readings...more than enough for a upgrade

[CrazyC83]

If Matthew was upgraded, this should be too.

The case here is much more convincing than with Matthew (which IMO should be downgraded to cat 4, but that's a topic for another day).

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167910618000584704

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167952347567312896

That is crazy to catch this monster right on Elbow Cay, wow!

[tropicwatch]

Well at least the comms are working better with recon tonight. I hope I just didn't jinx it.

[jdjaguar]

They'll probably go 155 next advisory, they don't seem to like going to Cat 5 close to land.

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

[Blinhart]

011930 2617N 07500W 7525 02011 9453 +181 +162 041086 102 127 005 03
012000 2618N 07502W 7512 02116 9567 +150 //// 037139 151 153 045 01
012030 2619N 07503W 7529 02182 9670 +143 //// 038134 139 127 058 01

Even though it is rain contaminated 176 MPH, I would go with 160 MPH.

[Blown Away]

Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

I see straight west as well looking at IR.

The most true due W/270 degrees I've seen all day watching the loop...

[GCANE]

Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

Anti-cyclone just formed over this.
UL will predominate steering.
Troposphere just got higher over this allowing vort column to expand vertically.
Bottom line, going for mid to strong level cat 5 and steering W to WSW.

[supercane4867]

Josh and Jim needs to get ready for some hell on earth. The island of Grand Abaco will probably cease to exist for a while...

[MetroMike]

Has been heading due West according to my infrared 96 hr loop.
Confirmed it using the top of the page which can line up with the eye.