ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The pressure looks to still be falling too. The AF data had heights that suggest around 935 mb.

[supercane4867]

A blend of flight level, dropsonde, and SFMR data should be good for an estimate of at least 140kt.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Two broken recon windshields = model windshield wiper back to west

Sound like the start of a Christmas song...

[jasons2k]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".

He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.

[dexterlabio]

I know we have recon to accurately measure the actual intensity of this storm, but I'm just wondering what the Dvorak numbers are at this point? Because basing on the IR imagery, I'm more inclined to think that this is already a Category 5 hurricane.

[gatorcane]

There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.

[CronkPSU]

Orlando International Airport announced they’re changing plans, and staying open.

thinking they should have waited to see the 11 PM update, they may have to reverse that again later

[1900hurricane]

We didn't get a repeat of the >150 kt flight level winds, but we got the same SFMR values. I'm not envious of the NHC right now, especially since it still isn't clear if SFMR is systematically overestimating the extreme intensities since the algorithm change in 2016.

[tropicwatch]

With all we have seen tonight. I would expect and upgrade to Cat 5 and a little shift westward in track. imo

[Hammy]

We didn't get a repeat of the >150 kt flight level winds, but we got the same SFMR values. I'm not envious of the NHC right now, especially since it still isn't clear if SFMR is systematically overestimating the extreme intensities since the algorithm change in 2016.

Thinking they'll go 155 instead of 160?

[BrandonJay21]

Orlando International Airport announced they’re changing plans, and staying open.

thinking they should have waited to see the 11 PM update, they may have to reverse that again later

They’re now saying they will continue to monitor the situation.

[ouragans]

URNT12 KNHC 010135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 01/00:43:10Z
B. 26.21 deg N 074.81 deg W

I might be wrong but with that position compared to the last dropsonde, it's less than 270 deg

[1900hurricane]

We didn't get a repeat of the >150 kt flight level winds, but we got the same SFMR values. I'm not envious of the NHC right now, especially since it still isn't clear if SFMR is systematically overestimating the extreme intensities since the algorithm change in 2016.

Thinking they'll go 155 instead of 160?

I'd go 140 kt/160 mi/hr, but I am a little more gung-ho than the agencies sometimes (just go look at the current 90W thread for proof of that!). I think it's conceivable that they only go 135 kt, although I think 140 kt is better.

[CFLHurricane]

Just a random observation. I grew-up in Tampa. Then, I lived in Savannah for a number of years. We used to camp on a hammock out in the marsh, which was only accessible at low tide, and I was in charge of keeping track of the tide charts and scheduling the hike out to the hammock.

I never once have heard the term “king tide” in my entire life until yesterday. Not ever.

We always called them “spring tides.”

I don’t understand this need to constantly change things.

“I used to be with ‘it’, but then they changed what ‘it’ was. Now what I’m with isn’t ‘it’ anymore and what’s ‘it’ seems weird and scary. It’ll happen to you!”

-Abe Simpson

P.S. Change is the only thing that actually exists in this universe.

[supercane4867]

Even if they go with 135kt operationally I still think they will make the upgrade in post-season, but meanwhile She’s still intensifying for sure

[jlauderdal]

There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.

Could be the rare case where a hurricane is creating its own environment

[Texashawk]

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

[cjrciadt]

Orlando International Airport announced they’re changing plans, and staying open.

thinking they should have waited to see the 11 PM update, they may have to reverse that again later

They’re now saying they will continue to monitor the situation.

Same line WDW said too.

[Nimbus]

There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.

The official forecast didn't have it gaining much latitude until the stall near Abaco.
I was expecting more of a slow down tonight but there is still time.

[johngaltfla]

This was a scary twitter thread to read. The pro mets and atmospheric physicists are starting to freak out on twitter that the models have blown this and it will barrel into South Florida.

Did someone say “pump the ridge”?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1167973227886342146

Shawn Milrad teaches at embry riddle in daytona beach

Good school, btw.

My uncle taught there for years. Back to the terror of what ifs and whens.