ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ian2401]

https://i.imgur.com/rb3lRx3.gif

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH

Dorian going to pass the 0600z 75.7
forecast point probably by 11pm from what I can see... Moving faster than forecasted it appears?

wow thats much faster than forecast no?

[NDG]

Tonight's 0z H50 sounding, ridging to the north of Dorian still staying a little stronger than what models showed earlier, here comes the shortwave that is forecasted to weaken it, but to me the short wave does not look as strong as forecasted. IMO.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

What the heck is that model?

Model ran out of IBM -- not reliable.

From a few pages back, but instead of claiming it's not reliable, which we don't know, it's more accurate to say we don't know how well it verifies, so reliability is unknown.

[EquusStorm]

Sondes continue to indicate scary surface winds... 150kt below the 920mb level is becoming almost the norm

[Buck]

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

There may not be enough time left for an orderly evacuation from Southeast Florida. If they delay there won’t be time. Evac is because of storm surge and the risk is considerable.

Evac to where exactly? Maybe West Coast? Certainly can’t go north

If only we were allowed to be friends with Cuba

[Stangfriik]

Amazing

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1167800453691691008?s=19

[Ian2401]

is it just me or has this thing really picked up forward speed?

[rdcrds]

Better stall. That’s all



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[PandaCitrus]

Vertical Evacuation to higher ground, safer structures. Nothing else they can do.

Evac to where exactly? Maybe West Coast? Certainly can’t go north

[Blown Away]

I think the future of Dorian will become much clearer for the NHC once they have the 0z H50 sounding data...

[Kat5]

is it just me or has this thing really picked up forward speed?

It sure has, might cause some adjustments to the NHC track down the road.

[CrazyC83]

At this point, since the NHC track was already west of earlier models, I'd leave it alone for the most part but the 00Z models will be HUGE.

[Blinhart]

Its gonna be some interesting reading in a few minutes, to see what the NHC has to say and their thoughts on the future paths and how uncertain they do/don't sound.

[Blinhart]

At this point, since the NHC track was already west of earlier models, I'd leave it alone for the most part but the 00Z models will be HUGE.

I think they will be moving it about 25 miles West for all points.

[Kat5]

[Blinhart]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SFCSE/t0.gif

That bottom right graphic is pretty scary, showing that the WSW motion is highly likely now. And the top right shows a weakness pointing NW over the Mississippi Valley

[Patrick99]

Tonight's 0z H50 sounding, ridging to the north of Dorian still staying a little stronger than what models showed earlier, here comes the shortwave that is forecasted to weaken it, but to me the short wave does not look as strong as forecasted. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/SXt2HPv.gif

Yeah I see this pretty clearly on the wisc.edu steering flow loops, and I have to say it looks a little concerning. I see the weakness around Nebraska to Texarkana area and it doesn’t seem to be moving much while that high keeps wanting to extend W over Florida. Maybe this changes tomorrow but at least for now that looks....not great.

[1900hurricane]

I'm really digging all the eyewall sondes we've been getting with Dorian that are staying in the RMW. All the dropsonde data from the stronger storms the past four years or so could end up going a long way verifying the validity of high end SFMR data or not. A similar study to the original Black, Franklin, and Valde, which established the standard reductions we use today, but with only the intense systems could reveal if these assumptions remains constant the further up in intensity a storm gets.

[MrJames]

11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.3°N 75.1°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[dukeblue219]

They kept it at 150mph. Huh. Didn't see THAT coming...