ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

icon have not gaving up hit here in miami

Nor should it, since it might of been correct the whole time, it is getting closer to going in like that "A" storm of 1992, which is a very scary thought.

but out cone we save by what nhc saying 5pm

The center of the storm can go anywhere between the cone.

[ObsessedMiami]

This twitter thread and the comments is worth a read. The atmospheric physicists on twitter are freaking out that the models have blown this and Dorian may barrel into South Florida.

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/ ... 7886342146

NHC staked The house (literally in some folks cases) at 2pm by moving the center line even farther east than 8am. It is a big bet, for sure.

[La Sirena]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

That particular model has been relentless on maintaining course every run over the past few days, with very minimal variations. Never seen that type of consistency before from a model so many days out.

That is one insanely impressive model.....

[tolakram]

This is not the place for a cone discussion but please look it up. The cone is the average error, and many times the center can go out of the cone, it's not a perfect indicator. Odds of a storm going outside the cone are small based on past performance.

[Jr0d]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

If the ICON did not perform well with Barry and so far very well with Dorian, I would throw it out.

Given its recent track record we have to pay attention. Especially since the Euro and GPS have in my opinions perform sub par with Dorian so far.

[sma10]

Any news on the 18z uk ensembles?

I don't think they are allowed to show much of the 18z Euro as it is a pay model.

Ukmet, not euro

[NFLnut]

Any news on the 18z uk ensembles?

I don't think they are allowed to show much of the 18z Euro as it is a pay model.

Ukmet, not euro

EURO 06z and 18z are pay also.

[GeneratorPower]

This is not the place for a cone discussion but please look it up. The cone is the average error, and many times the center can go out of the cone, it's not a perfect indicator. Odds of a storm going outside the cone are small based on past performance.

Actually the odds of a storm going outside the cone are, statistically, 33% exactly. The cone is drawn so that storms stay inside the code 66% of the time.

[sma10]

I don't think they are allowed to show much of the 18z Euro as it is a pay model.

Ukmet, not euro

EURO 06z and 18z are pay also.

Yes, thanks. I found the 18z ukmet. Ensemble mean is up the fl coast, with many members inland

[Steve]

Y’all been talking Icon. 00z is rolling.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90100&fh=0

NAM was mulling around off the GA Coast at 84h

[HurricaneFrances04]

FWIW, ICON has been too far west.

[jlauderdal]

This is not the place for a cone discussion but please look it up. The cone is the average error, and many times the center can go out of the cone, it's not a perfect indicator. Odds of a storm going outside the cone are small based on past performance.

33 percent

[Condor]

This was the EU after the last time Gonzo went up on Thursday

[Ian2401]

ICON at +3hrs has dorian's center at approximatley 75.1 W. Dorian right now is well past 75.1 W

becoming very concerned with the forward speed of this system.

[Blinhart]

FWIW, ICON has been too far west.

https://i.imgur.com/BGPT1R4.gif

And how is that???

[tarheelprogrammer]

Hour 24 and the icon has adjusted slightly NE since the 18z run.

[caneman]

39 hours mark darn near landfall on west palm

[Blizzard96x]

Pretty massive NE shift for ICON

[HurricaneFrances04]

ICON at +3hrs has dorian's center at approximatley 75.1 W. Dorian right now is well past 75.1 W

becoming very concerned with the forward speed of this system.

The model initialized at 8 pm, so +3 hours would be 11 pm.

[caneseddy]

Looks like ICON wants to landfall in Palm Beach County..