ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5081 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Hammy wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.


They've forecast to Cat 5 with both Irma and Ivan, but I believe those were the only two times (and both were, if I remember, after they'd already achieved it once.)


They've forecast Cat 5 many times in the Eastern Pacific over the years.


Well yea, but there aren’t millions of people in the crosshairs of a major hurricane landfall on that side. EPAC also less influenced by (higher frequency) mid-latitude signals and dry air.
Last edited by p1nheadlarry on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5082 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:13 pm

MacTavish wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.

Yeah, but it should be based on data and evidence, not what peoples' reactions will be.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5083 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:14 pm

Dan Brown is one of the finest tropical forecasters we have. I find it remarkable that some question the reasoning of NHC. It seems everyone has a personal agenda these days...sigh
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5084 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:14 pm

wx98 wrote:It’s not even just with the winds. The Air Force drop in the eye confirmed 937 mbar but yet they just went with 940...


Good catch. NHC seems to be ignoring Recon for now....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5085 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:15 pm

Kazmit wrote:
MacTavish wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.

Yeah, but it should be based on data and evidence, not what peoples' reactions will be.


Completely agree.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5086 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:15 pm

Kazmit wrote:
MacTavish wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.

Yeah, but it should be based on data and evidence, not what peoples' reactions will be.


No one here disagrees with that principle.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5087 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:A 130kt storm with 150kt+ flight level winds. Don't think I've ever seen this before


It seems like that 151 kt 10-second flight-level wind would be the second-highest for a 130 kt hurricane since at least 1989 (start of the Tropical Atlantic recon archive including WPAC and EPAC storms). That observation would easily support 135-140 kt but, of course, there are many other factors that need to be considered when assessing the storm's intensity...

Image
Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5088 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I can see why NHC are holding off on intensity, dry air may inhibit intensification overnight, so it may have already peaked as of this evening.


Not when data shows otherwise.

Not enough steady data to support Cat 5 then.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5089 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:16 pm

wx98 wrote:It’s not even just with the winds. The Air Force drop in the eye confirmed 937 mbar but yet they just went with 940...


That I can understand, those differences can sometimes be a result of dramatic changes in altitude to the recon (turbulence flying through a cat 4/5 is pretty significant). I can understand the SFMR argument too, because I read the paper suggesting SFMR is high biased and I agree with it. I can even understand the dropsonde argument as it's prone to gusts. It's the 153 knot flight level wind level and the reduction factor showing 140 knots that baffles me. If the NHC had explained that, I would be satisfied. I simply do not know what data they look for then for a Cat 5.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5090 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:17 pm

Hammy wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.


But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.


They've forecast to Cat 5 with both Irma and Ivan, but I believe those were the only two times (and both were, if I remember, after they'd already achieved it once.)


Right Irma was already a 5 at one point, Ivan I don’t recall
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5091 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:17 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Dan Brown is one of the finest tropical forecasters we have. I find it remarkable that some question the reasoning of NHC. It seems everyone has a personal agenda these days...sigh


No agendas I've seen. Just a lot of people surprised.

NHC isnt doing anything underhanded or, perhaps, wrong even, but its hard to not be surprised. I'd sure like to know more about their reasoning even though it really doesn't matter.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5092 Postby rdcrds » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm

Has nhc ever moved the cone enough to include say Miami or a bit above and wider west three or four days out before. I’m in Tampa and not even near cone.


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5093 Postby Ian2401 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm

is the eye contracting a bit or am i just tired of staring at satellite loops all day
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5094 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm

WAcyclone wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:A 130kt storm with 150kt+ flight level winds. Don't think I've ever seen this before


It seems like that 151 kt 10-second flight-level wind would be the second-highest for a 130 kt hurricane since at least 1989 (start of the Tropical Atlantic recon archive including WPAC and EPAC storms). That observation would easily support 135-140 kt but, of course, there are many other factors that need to be considered when assessing the storm's intensity...

https://i.imgur.com/EBhsfmS.png



Like the 155 knot surface drop soude reading and all the smrf data. This isn't just fight level winds.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5095 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm

MacTavish wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.


I actually agree with that statement, but we can't argue and bash them, because they are the ones that are putting out the information. Watching TWC just now they had to show the GFS and try to explain why the NHC did what they did and also tried to say that the ridge is weak and suppose to be weakening even more tomorrow and be eroded by Tuesday and Dorian is suppose to be picked up by the trough by Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5096 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:20 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5097 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:21 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5098 Postby skillz305 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:21 pm

Blinhart wrote:
MacTavish wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.


I actually agree with that statement, but we can't argue and bash them, because they are the ones that are putting out the information. Watching TWC just now they had to show the GFS and try to explain why the NHC did what they did and also tried to say that the ridge is weak and suppose to be weakening even more tomorrow and be eroded by Tuesday and Dorian is suppose to be picked up by the trough by Wednesday.



But is the ridge weak ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5099 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:22 pm

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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5100 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:23 pm

skillz305 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
MacTavish wrote:
The media complicates the situation.


I actually agree with that statement, but we can't argue and bash them, because they are the ones that are putting out the information. Watching TWC just now they had to show the GFS and try to explain why the NHC did what they did and also tried to say that the ridge is weak and suppose to be weakening even more tomorrow and be eroded by Tuesday and Dorian is suppose to be picked up by the trough by Wednesday.



But is the ridge weak ?


I don't think it is, but ask other posters that question.
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