ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/1167998619615522817

[MacTavish]

I actually agree with that statement, but we can't argue and bash them, because they are the ones that are putting out the information. Watching TWC just now they had to show the GFS and try to explain why the NHC did what they did and also tried to say that the ridge is weak and suppose to be weakening even more tomorrow and be eroded by Tuesday and Dorian is suppose to be picked up by the trough by Wednesday.

Im with you. This is a very debatable subject and this isnt the place. But because of the possible changes in the 00z models regarding track,i can understand the nhc waiting and going with continuity.

[CyclonicFury]

I find it odd how NHC is just discarding all of the SFMR readings. They didn't even use the blending method this advisory.

[Highteeld]

Stewart would pull the trigger lol

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/1167998619615522817

That there is news to me, I thought they used all information that they are given.

[Cerlin]

There’s no way this shouldn’t have been upgraded by now...

[Kingarabian]

They did the same with Hurricane Lane last year and after the 2nd recon mission, they upgraded it to Cat.5. Continuity is key for them.

[Texashawk]

Wow. Has anyone actually read the comments on that NHC update tweet? Incredible amount of vitrol and people calling them outright liars. Come on, people. They are professionals.. they are not perfect. Disturbing.

[txwatcher91]

If NHC is going to ignore the plethora of data out there indicating a cat 5 then why even send recon out there? We can save a ton of money and use satellite estimates.

The NHC cites the inaccuracies of using SFMR in intense hurricanes as their reasoning not to upgrade.

There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.

They had 151kts at flight level (and nhc failed to discuss) which is sufficient for an upgrade to 160mph, at least 155. They didn’t bump the intensity any yet the pressure fell and recon has been finding stronger winds in all quads. All the data points to a cat 5.

[sikkar]

Radar might be showing a forming secondary eye wall.

Just my opinion.

[p1nheadlarry]

Colin was a tropical storm also

[1900hurricane]

Worth pointing out that the 151 kt flight level wind was recorded at about 750 mb rather than the standard 700 mb. Reduction from that level is a little lower, about 0.88. That yields about 133 kt.

[EquusStorm]

I disagree with the lack of upgrade, but I can understand if they want to wait for a bit more continuity or continued pressure drops before pulling the trigger. Still, if post-season doesn't at least suggest 135kt, I'm going to be confused.

The vitriolic overreactions are kinda ridiculous since they accomplish nothing

[NFLnut]

I actually agree with that statement, but we can't argue and bash them, because they are the ones that are putting out the information. Watching TWC just now they had to show the GFS and try to explain why the NHC did what they did and also tried to say that the ridge is weak and suppose to be weakening even more tomorrow and be eroded by Tuesday and Dorian is suppose to be picked up by the trough by Wednesday.

Im with you. This is a very debatable subject and this isnt the place. But because of the possible changes in the 00z models regarding track,i can understand the nhc waiting and going with continuity.

I also understand them waiting out to make any L/R adjustments. No need to do it now. Some of the ensembles that shifted west earlier are already shifting east. NHC doesn't ride the latest wave.

[p1nheadlarry]

Stewart would pull the trigger lol

My boy Beven would have at least pushed for 135/937

[Blown Away]

Today's 5pm Forecast:24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

At 5pm today the NHC had Dorian passing 77.0W at 1800Z tomorrow!!

Unless some drastic slowdown occurs, Dorian will pass 77.0W overnight...

I'm thinking some track changes are coming...

[NFLnut]

Radar might be showing a forming secondary eye wall.

Just my opinion.

This would be news. 11PM NHC discussion specifically mentioned no secondary eyewall.

[abajan]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

[Blinhart]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

They might be members already or at least regular guests, we don't know who everyone here is.

[Smurfwicked]

I'm more surprised they didn't move the track further west for the update than I am that they didn't upgrade to Cat 5. Honestly expected a small change further west with another in the morning to prevent a large jump.

If the west model trend continues a big deviation of track going to be needed in a single update sometime tomorrow. Don't post much but been following storms here for many years and never have I been on the edge of my seat watching one that was over 1000 miles away from me the way Dorian has. The concern of the forecast points moving further west towards Florida landfall with the length of the stall/crawling forward speed not verifying before landfall is nail biting. Not a forecast nor a prediction just know we can all expect the models to change over the coming days.