ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

1. I’m sure some have.
2. They’d get a headache from rolling their eyes so much at all the people I disagree with.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the TPW loop, I would say the trough in the Midwest is losing.

[Yellow Evan]

They did the same with Hurricane Lane last year and after the 2nd recon mission, they upgraded it to Cat.5. Continuity is key for them.

This is like twice as justifiable as Lane at this point honestly just based on FL and SFMR.

[cjrciadt]

I'm more surprised they didn't move the track further west for the update than I am that they didn't upgrade to Cat 5. Honestly expected a small change further west with another in the morning to prevent a large jump.

If the west model trend continues a big deviation of track going to be needed in a single update sometime tomorrow. Don't post much but been following storms here for many years and never have I been on the edge of my seat watching one that was over 1000 miles away from me the way Dorian has. The concern of the forecast points moving further west towards Florida landfall with the length of the stall/crawling forward speed not verifying before landfall is nail biting. Not a forecast nor a prediction just know we can all expect the models to change over the coming days.

Imagine being less than 400 miles from Dorian lol!

[Yellow Evan]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

1. I’m sure some have.
2. They’d get a headache from rolling their eyes so much at all the people I disagree with.

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

[Highteeld]

Griping aside, here is something that really matters:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the last image on the WV loop. The ULL that I have been following is finally starting to weaken but not really moving in a SW motion. Also the shortwave looks to be flattening out as opposed to digging further. I've always heard from old timers that you follow the WV loop because it will show you the path the storm will take. I dont see the weakness forming yet. Also as the ULL is weakening you are seeing banding trying to expand on the west side.

[abajan]

Griping aside, here is something that really matters:

https://i.imgur.com/4eVHDkr.gif

Yep. Levi Cowan mentioned this in his latest video.

[ozonepete]

Wow. Has anyone actually read the comments on that NHC update tweet? Incredible amount of vitrol and people calling them outright liars. Come on, people. They are professionals.. they are not perfect. Disturbing.

That is indeed disturbing. This stuff has got to stop. Their jobs are hard enough.

[sponger]

GFS run keeping it off the coast at hour 66.

[Kingarabian]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

1. I’m sure some have.
2. They’d get a headache from rolling their eyes so much at all the people I disagree with.

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

[tropicwatch]

AF doing funky things again

[Highteeld]

You put two forecasters in the same room long enough and it will eventually turn into battle royale

[rdcrds]

Looks like nhc got data in to gfs to keep it east to thwart Florida panic


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[Sciencerocks]

You put two forecasters in the same room long enough and it will eventually turn into battle royale

Exactly, people be they pro's or non-pro's are going to disagree. Isn't this a free country and shouldn't discussion of the data be allowed? It isn't hurting anything.

[1900hurricane]

1. I’m sure some have.
2. They’d get a headache from rolling their eyes so much at all the people I disagree with.

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

What storm was that? That I need to see.

[TheProfessor]

You put two forecasters in the same room long enough and it will eventually turn into battle royale

That or they start telling stories about the old days.

[ConvergenceZone]

00 GFS definitely moved east quite a bit. Looks like the NHC knows what they are talking about....

[CyclonicFury]

1. I’m sure some have.
2. They’d get a headache from rolling their eyes so much at all the people I disagree with.

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

Let me guess, it was a weakening storm that wxman57 said was weaker than the CPHC indicated because surface observations did not support the official intensity?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Griping aside, here is something that really matters:

https://i.imgur.com/4eVHDkr.gif

Yeah it's a lot more evident now. Just a tad south from 18z.