ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

What storm was that? That I need to see.

Iselle from 2014.

[1900hurricane]

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

What storm was that? That I need to see.

Iselle from 2014.

Thanks. I'm too nosy for my own good sometimes.

[Javlin]

https://i.imgur.com/EJGW96K.gif

Today's 5pm Forecast:24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

At 5pm today the NHC had Dorian passing 77.0W at 1800Z tomorrow!!

Unless some drastic slowdown occurs, Dorian will pass 77.0W overnight...

I'm thinking some track changes are coming...

I figured from that video Dorian cover roughly .5' in two hours that's 30miles roughly which is 15mph the ridge is strong with this one and look at Cimss steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

and you can see the shortwave has flattened according to them.

[Yellow Evan]

Back in 2014 I was crapping on a CPHC forecaster for lowered the winds and said forecaster replied on Storm2k to 16 year old me slamming them. That was fun.

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

Let me guess, it was a weakening storm that wxman57 said was weaker than the CPHC indicated because surface observations did not support the official intensity?

It was over the center position of Iselle. Wxman thought it was well west of the island while the CPHC had it over the Big Island.

[1900hurricane]

It's not needed with the direct recon data, but SATCON has been falling on its face lately with Dorian. Even the arguably too conservative latest NHC estimate falls right on the edge of the +2 sigma estimate.I suspect a resolution issue may be at play since Dorian is still maintaining a very small 110 nm rOCI. Lane had a similar issue last year as well.

[Highteeld]

What storm was that? That I need to see.

Iselle from 2014.

Thanks. I'm too nosy for my own good sometimes.

Iceman56 is our guy

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1167997542132568069

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Longer Bahamas radar loop, about 4 hours:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

[sikkar]

What storm was that? That I need to see.

Iselle from 2014.

Thanks. I'm too nosy for my own good sometimes.

Sorry
Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
#1109 Postby Iceman56 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:01 pm

I lowered the advisory intensity to 65 knots because the various RECON intensity estimate techniques in the 23Z pass gave 66 kt, 67 kt, and 68 kt, with 90% of a max flight level wind of 72 knots giving 65 knots. This made going with 70 kt in the 00z intensity a stretch, but we round up slightly for the sake of safety and likely undersampling. Since the pressure continues to rise slowly, and the satellite and radar presentations of the system looking increasingly sheared, I could not justify retaining the 70 knot intensity at 03z.

If you are finding that the CPHC webpage is slow, you should try hitting refresh. Many times we find that people are getting old info on the page because their browser is loading from the cache. There have been many times I've been on the phone with people insisting the page is old when I'm looking at the our page from the office and it's current. The goal here is to publish the complete advisory package by :45, but the discussion almost always goes last as we put together our thoughts. The package is not officially "late" until synoptic + 3 hour.

And yes, you better believe I am a pro-met.
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[Astromanía]

What if some of the people who work at the NHC were to become members of S2K and post replies to comments? That would be kinda interesting.

You got me!, damn!

[craptacular]

AF doing funky things again

No kidding. They are flying in loops out near the SW edge of Dorian around and over Eleuthera Island. Wonder if they are also having equipment issues. Or, they are protesting the apparent lack of confidence in their obs.

[Highteeld]

Iselle from 2014.

Thanks. I'm too nosy for my own good sometimes.

Sorry
Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
#1109 Postby Iceman56 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:01 pm

I lowered the advisory intensity to 65 knots because the various RECON intensity estimate techniques in the 23Z pass gave 66 kt, 67 kt, and 68 kt, with 90% of a max flight level wind of 72 knots giving 65 knots. This made going with 70 kt in the 00z intensity a stretch, but we round up slightly for the sake of safety and likely undersampling. Since the pressure continues to rise slowly, and the satellite and radar presentations of the system looking increasingly sheared, I could not justify retaining the 70 knot intensity at 03z.

If you are finding that the CPHC webpage is slow, you should try hitting refresh. Many times we find that people are getting old info on the page because their browser is loading from the cache. There have been many times I've been on the phone with people insisting the page is old when I'm looking at the our page from the office and it's current. The goal here is to publish the complete advisory package by :45, but the discussion almost always goes last as we put together our thoughts. The package is not officially "late" until synoptic + 3 hour.

And yes, you better believe I am a pro-met.
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gets wild around post 1265

[StruThiO]

sorry to be the party pooper, but could we please stay on topic

[Highteeld]

Lmfao I remember it clear as day. Then he went at it with Wxman57.

Let me guess, it was a weakening storm that wxman57 said was weaker than the CPHC indicated because surface observations did not support the official intensity?

It was over the center position of Iselle. Wxman thought it was well west of the island while the CPHC had it over the Big Island.

start here for those who want to see the good stuff:
http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php ... start=1260

[Aric Dunn]

continuing to chug along.. steering still looks intact.. how far west will it make it ?

[craptacular]

Alright, recon is finally heading back in towards the center on a SW-NE pass.

[1900hurricane]

My apologies, my curiosity definitely got the better of me. As a penance, here's a few good Dorian tweets.

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1167997827743567872



 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1168011597983469568

[FireRat]

Latest...



I've been watching Dorian's progress tonight and wonder why his satellite presentation looks like he's more stretched out on his east side, while the west side of the storm is much more sudden in its transition from outer bands to CDO and eye?

Could this be some weird inertia Dorian is feeling as he's hitting the brakes soon, almost seems like the eye is lunging forward ahead of the body lol. Still a nice symmetrty to Dorian's core, but not the extremities. What could be squishing his west edge? Seems like some sort of shear working against him a little bit too, hmmm. Fascinating storm to watch, and can't get off the couch watching TWC tonight!

[sponger]

NHC stated movement was at 7 kts. Is that possible?

[STRiZZY]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1167961494715158533