ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Craters]

I do not typically post the JMA but 0z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2019090100/jma_z500_mslp_eus_4.png

Wow. Dorian isn't even a tropical storm there, is it??

[AutoPenalti]

I do not typically post the JMA but 0z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2019090100/jma_z500_mslp_eus_4.png

Wow. Dorian isn't even a tropical storm there, is it??

Lower resolution model.

[STRiZZY]

[drezee]

CMC...seriously???...you are forcing me to stay up to see the Euro

[Blizzard96x]

I do not typically post the JMA but 0z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2019090100/jma_z500_mslp_eus_4.png

Wow. Dorian isn't even a tropical storm there, is it??

The JMA basically initializing Dorian as a 1000mb+ storm lol..

In other news, the CMC makes landfall around Port St Lucie... Its "short range" sister the RGEM (not that reliable for Hurricanes like the NAM) also gets very close to Florida. It only goes out to 48 hrs on Tropical Tidbits, I think 54 at 12z and 00z on a different website.

[drezee]

Slow motion on the coast...no good

[KC7NEC]

I can't remember a storm that has had so many changes, and disagreements between models and even run to run. This thing is the most bipolar beast storm I've tried to track.

[PandaCitrus]

Is Dorian forecast to cross 76 W at 3AM tonight? Because he's really booking it on IR.

[AutoPenalti]

Guys the JMA is a lower resolution model, do not use it for intensity.

[drezee]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019083118/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.loop.05L.2019.2019083118.gif

That is 18z

[ColdMiser123]

The first trough that erodes away at the western edge of the current ridge is not enough to take Dorian out to sea. It is what creates uncertain steering flow and an eventual turn to the north. A second trough is what allows for the mean flow to allow Dorian to turn to the east and potentially stay completely offshore. That second trough has not been fully sampled yet, and has yet to form.

Small differences in the amplitude and orientation of the trough are important for heights to the east of the Dorian, as that will determine how quickly to the east it will turn as it progresses to the north.

[STRiZZY]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019083118/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.loop.05L.2019.2019083118.gif

That is 18z

Oh really? My bad.

[skillz305]

So the 00z CMC and JMA are showing FL landfalls while 00z GFS shows a tad bit more east off shore? Will the Euro be enough to change the cone this morning?

[ExBailbonds]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019083118/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.loop.05L.2019.2019083118.gif

That is 18z

Oh really? My bad.

the date and time are right in the url for you the last 2 digits of the date (18) is the time stamp. For future reference.

[STRiZZY]

That is 18z

Oh really? My bad.

the date and time are right in the url for you the last 2 digits of the date (18) is the time stamp. For future reference.

Thanks! I was struggling to find which was which, new site for me.

[CrazyC83]

If the Euro moves any amount to the left, a Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for most of the current Tropical Storm Watch area, at least north of Jupiter Inlet.

[Bocadude85]

0z HMON faster and .5 degree farther west

[AtlanticWind]

HMON a little faster west

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF a tad south

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is more west and slightly South of 18z at 24 hours.