ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Is it just me or does it feel like Dorian has been creeping west for about a week now?

[Nasdaq]

Abaco Inn webcam https://www.abacoinn.com/

any other live links of the Bahamas?

[sponger]

Is it just me or does it feel like Dorian has been creeping west for about a week now?

4 months give or take.

[aperson]

 https://twitter.com/cubeinacube/status/1168017545565102080

[CronkPSU]

Is it just me or does it feel like Dorian has been creeping west for about a week now?

and it is forecast to get even slower and possibly stall for 24-36 hours!

[stormhunter7]

https://twitter.com/cubeinacube/status/1168017545565102080

think its dry mid level air?

[Kazmit]

Recon heading back in, hopefully it finds some solid evidence.

[Highteeld]

NW eyewall is savage

[KBBOCA]

That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..

Anti-cyclone just formed over this.
UL will predominate steering.
Troposphere just got higher over this allowing vort column to expand vertically.
Bottom line, going for mid to strong level cat 5 and steering W to WSW.


https://i.imgur.com/ZRlPjCq.png

Looking at that graphic, there is only one place that Dorian can go and that is Miami-Dade, which is a horrible thing, because he has an excellent chance of getting to sustained winds over 180 MPH.

And yet not even tropical storm watches in effect for anything south of Palm Beach county, if I'm remembering the NHC 11 pm graphic correctly. Miami weather folks are not quite sounding the all clear, but have been expressing relief all day. If this does head SW, I shudder to think about all those who began to let down their guard. I guess at least the slow motion (?) will give some warning time if that does begin to play out???

[aperson]

https://twitter.com/cubeinacube/status/1168017545565102080

think its dry mid level air?

I think you may be right, mimic-tpw2 has been showing it mixing in around the same time last night and it has recently entrained some dry air. Interestingly, last night the system rapidly intensified in response and it doesn't look to really be minding it all tonight either. Radar presentation looks stable as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon.. 939 mb.. with 74 kts..

low 930's ?

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1167961494715158533

Thats what I've been saying since 7:30...the Upper Low was not in the position the models forecasted, and it changed the steering.

[drezee]

Just info..technically recon pass just dhowed the center is not quite 26.3N yet...NNE wind at 26.3...0300z says 26.3...2 hours later not exactly there yet...we round up though

[Highteeld]

Likely under 935mb now

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1167990285692895237

[STRiZZY]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1167961494715158533

Thats what I've been saying since 7:30...the Upper Low was not in the position the models forecasted, and it changed the steering.

Yes I saw you saying that as well. Good call!

[1900hurricane]

The pressure extrapolations provided by recon dropped out, but I was able to hand extrapolate about 936 mb that pass.

[CrazyC83]

Likely under 935mb now

Based on the heights and differences, I calculate about 934 mb. But we'll see the dropsonde.

[storm4u]

Maybe even a little lower


quote="Aric Dunn"]Recon.. 939 mb.. with 74 kts..

low 930's ?[/quote]

[eyesontropics]

Just want to give a big shout out here for all the pro-met's who take time out of their busy day to make a comment. Thank you for taking the time. <3