ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5321 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am

Euro making for scary moments at 48
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=48
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5322 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5323 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:03 am

About ~75 miles west of 12z at hour 48, has now stalled. The orientation and amplitude of the second trough will determine the kind of recurve after the initial turn north.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5324 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am

West of 12z and last 00z at 48 still
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5325 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am

sponger wrote:
STRiZZY wrote:ECMWF initializing at 990??

I know it's usually off but wow..


Anyone know why that is? How can it be so accurate when it misses the starting pressure?


When using Tropical Tidbits website, this is the low-res output of the ECMWF model, which doesn't haven an accurate representation of the pressure. High-res, pressures are lower.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5326 Postby Sambucol » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am

Is there a possibility Dorian continues west into the GOM?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5327 Postby craptacular » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am

At the risk of getting lost in gasps watching the Euro, I will let people in this thread know that Gonzo is airborne again to do more sampling for the models.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5328 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
sponger wrote:
STRiZZY wrote:ECMWF initializing at 990??

I know it's usually off but wow..


Anyone know why that is? How can it be so accurate when it misses the starting pressure?

It’s a known issue on the Euro, doesn’t affect it.

But recon just found 934mb, is it realistic it will be 972mb in 24 hours? I don't understand how that can be accurate.

EDIT: Never mind, I did not realize the Euro had a low res output, thanks for the explanation @USTropics.
Last edited by Hurrilurker on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5329 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:05 am

but you can see the weakness opening up... when does the turn start
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5330 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:05 am

Looks like the 0z received the new sampling...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5331 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:05 am

Sambucol wrote:Is there a possibility Dorian continues west into the GOM?


Very low chance at this time.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5332 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:06 am

My god that is CLOSE
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5333 Postby jasons2k » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:06 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks like the 0z received the new sampling...


Concerning, indeed.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5334 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

Lifting up at 72. Does the weakness close??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5335 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

there's your North turn at 72. Still closer to Florida though
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5336 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

Lifting up at 72. Does the weakness close??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5337 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

Moving NW...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5338 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5339 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:07 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5340 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:09 am

Bad enough but the next two 24 hour plots should show if Icon and NAM were able to telegraph westerly track components after northern moves.
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