ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

It looks like the models are in a lot more agreement now with all the westward shifts. And now this makes the final outcome that much harder to forecast.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll make a prediction that this will landfall in North Carolina this time.........Of course I'll probably be wrong lol............

[caneman]

The problem is that if it doesnt stall or slow quite as much it will be right on land. Just 4 more hours of no stall or slow down. Really threading a needle

[StPeteMike]

As I said in the Discussion thread, the models have overstated the strength of a trough multiple times while showing a weaker ridge, which fails to materialize. Also, almost all have been slower in speed.

Until I see any evidence of a north turn, none have sold me on the idea that one will happen.

[NDG]

At 72 hours that's a good 70 miles further west than its earlier 12z run.
This is when Nowcast becomes important, every single tenth of longitude it gains over the next 24 hours will make a difference of how close it gets to the FL east coast as it starts tracking NNW.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 78-84: only ~70 miles offshore central-north FL vs ~130 prior 2 runs.

[caneman]

It looks like the models are in a lot more agreement now with all the westward shifts. And now this makes the final outcome that much harder to forecast.

Most of these models now seem to be within 40 -60 miles of landfall. Yesterday was 100 or so. I suspect we will see a shift west from the NHC. One more shift left from models in the am and we could be looking at florida landfall

[TheProfessor]

The Euro would be insanely devastating for the Grand Bahamas.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168043726976909313

[caneman]

At 72 hours that's a good 70 miles further west than its earlier 12z run.
This is when Nowcast becomes important, every single tenth of longitude it gains over the next 24 hours will make a difference of how close it gets to the FL east coast as it starts tracking NNW.

The real problem is landfall could actually occur in 36 to 48 hours if no significant slow down

[AxaltaRacing24]

It looks like the models are in a lot more agreement now with all the westward shifts. And now this makes the final outcome that much harder to forecast.

Most of these models now seem to be within 40 -60 miles of landfall. Yesterday was 100 or so. I suspect we will see a shift west from the NHC. One more shift left from models in the am and we could be looking at florida landfall

One more 50 mph west shift and it would be a game of inches. We are playing Russian roulette with a monster.

[Cerlin]

As I said in the Discussion thread, the models have overstated the strength of a trough multiple times while showing a weaker ridge, which fails to materialize. Also, almost all have been slower in speed.

Until I see any evidence of a north turn, none have sold me on the idea that one will happen.

Honestly I have to agree. I just have that sinking feeling in my gut—the one I got when I realized that Michael last year wasn’t going to just stop intensifying. Is that with any meteorological basis? Nope, but I don’t think the models have a good grasp on this one yet either so...

[Bocadude85]

One more left shift from the models and the eyewall will be scraping Palm Beach County as Dorian heads north

[Steve]

It would be tough to miss SC without a big hook east at 120

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the Euro is going to try to hook this into Georgia or South Carolina.

[StruThiO]

[Bocadude85]

Look at how close the 0z Euro is to making landfall in Palm Beach at hour 66, maybe 30 or 40 miles offshore?

[ColdMiser123]

A closer approach to the east coast of Florida this run.

Heights are now lower across the Atlantic compared to 12z, so the recurve should be quicker compared to 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

0Z Euro 78-84: only ~70 miles offshore central-north FL vs ~130 prior 2 runs.

when it stalls east of west palm its only 60 miles..

[tolakram]