ATL: DORIAN - Models

[jhpigott]

0Z Euro 78-84: only ~70 miles offshore central-north FL vs ~130 prior 2 runs.

when it stalls east of west palm its only 60 miles..

It looks closer to 30/40 miles off PBC/Martin County line at hr 66

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/2YO96GS.png

That looks like a straight shot North too. So the other shortwave misses it? If that gets on land in Florida and goes straight north my goodness

[ConvergenceZone]

Euro very close to riding the SC/NC Coastline....That's about as close to a landfall as you can get...

[shah83]

We are very dependent on that first shortwave reaching down deep south for no CONUS landfalls.

[crimi481]

I cant see anything to lift it too much. Dorian own environment is adding protection, eating all clouds - pumping the ridge.
I think west - or stall. Am i nuts?

[Blown Away]

Very sharp recurve once N turn begins. Surely possible, but from that N movement position it’s very aggressive.

[catskillfire51]

looking at euro's 00 to 24 hrs it'd have to maintain roughly 8.5mph from now until then.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Gets blasted out it looks like. I'm wondering if this impacts Nova Scotia?

[NDG]

So Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles, lol.

[ConvergenceZone]

Fortunately the storm moves at lightning speed once it hit 120 hours....and WAY off the east coast at 144 hours..

[Aric Dunn]

Very sharp recurve once N turn begins. Surely possible, but from that N movement position it’s very aggressive.

almost certainly some degree of a gradual turn likely.

[catskillfire51]

So Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles, lol.

I'm working nights so I'm up until 430am anyway haha lucky me

[LarryWx]

Still can't rest easy after that significant 0Z Euro westward shift. But what this really does is move the Euro from being a right outlier to close to the more dependable consensus just offshore.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still can't rest easy after that significant 0Z Euro westward shift. But what this really does is move the Euro from being a right outlier to close to the more dependable consensus just offshore.

This "dependable consensus" is extremely stressful.

[NDG]

Has the UKMET ensembles been posted yet?

[catskillfire51]

haven't been posted yet that I've seen

[STRiZZY]

So Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles, lol.

I'm always saying, ok after this model, or this update or this ensemble I'm done

[STRiZZY]

Has the UKMET ensembles been posted yet?

Can't find them anywhere. The page on Noaa's site hasn't updated past the 18z.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles, lol.

I'm always saying, ok after this model, or this update or this ensemble I'm done

I'm not happy I stayed up to see what I just saw. Makes sleeping a bit harder lol.

[Stormi]

So Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles, lol.

I'm always saying, ok after this model, or this update or this ensemble I'm done

This tennis match is killing me right now...