ATL: DORIAN - Models

[USTropics]

RUC has just started updating their 00z data set - https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019010100/, should be another ~30 minutes before UKMET ensembles come out.

[STRiZZY]

RUC has just started updating their 00z data set - https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019010100/, should be another ~30 minutes before UKMET ensembles come out.

Thanks!

[FireRat]

I'm with you guys, jeez watching these models is like watching a fish flopping out of water.

Off to bed, hoping for the better when waking. Pray for the Bahamas too!

[Blown Away]

06z TVCN shifted W @40 miles once turn begins.

[USTropics]

Correction, wrong date, hasn't started updating yet but you'll see the folder created here - https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/?C=M;O=D (normally it comes out at 3:30 ET)

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles will update sometime between 3:30-4:00 ET (normally closer to 4)

[rigbyrigz]

How do most of the commenters exactly define model “landfall”. Is it technically the center of the eye touching land, which was last reported for Dorian as 15 miles diameter eye or so? Some meteorological definitions I found say “when the center crosses land”, some say when “the eye” touches. FWIW they seem to define the eye-Wall crossing land as “direct hit” but not “landfall” per se.

Maybe it’s just silly semantics, sorry, and of course, at 938, 25 miles offshore is gonna be nasty for many. Depending on how you slice this, with hurricane force winds extending 30 miles plus now, the definition of “landfall” as used here takes on some added meaning for the lurkers, maybe others, so thanks.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[NDG]

Recap loop of 0z Euro run while it tracks close to the FL east coast, interesting how the Euro expands it in size as it tracks northward:

[AutoPenalti]

It’s just inches.

[Hurrilurker]

That run is about as devastating as it can possibly get for Freeport, Bahamas. Would be leveled. I hope it moves off that a bit at least.

[Tailspin]

cmc 00z

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if anyone is posting or posted the 00z or past CMC runs on here, but the CMC still shows a Florida landfall as Tailspin's graphics indicate.

[catskillfire51]

Doesn't seem to have any real stall

[chaser1]

What a great story-line for a modern day movie - " Operation StormFury - The Bad Seed Dorian"

[NDG]

0z Euro Ensembles, they also shifted to the west from previous 12z run but only 6 make landfall over FL.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

[STRiZZY]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.

[aperson]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

I mean, think of what thousands of years of hurricanes in similar interglacial climates will eventually due to erosion patterns.

[Hurrilurker]

Shifts or no, they're all very insistent on this near-90° north turn, mostly out to sea. For NHC to bring the cone back over Florida, they'd have to go against a ton of model guidance.